428
FXUS65 KFGZ 281602
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 AM MST Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying and warming trend across northern
Arizona for much of this week with breezy winds each afternoon.
By Thursday, temperatures look to cool, however, remain seasonal
as low pressure passes towards the north. Conditions are forecast
to remain dry through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Beautiful but cool morning across the region. The sun i
shining and some clouds are starting to develop as we warm up.
Clouds will be mainly along the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim, White Mountains, and Chuska Mountains. Outside of the clouds,
not expecting there to be any real downsides to the weather today.
Much warmer temperatures are on the way this week so definitely
something to look forward to. Get out and enjoy the day!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /341 AM MST/...Tranquil weather conditions are
taking place across northern Arizona early this morning as low
pressure continues to migrate eastward. Winds remain light, under
10 mph, this morning with temperatures at or slightly above
average for this time of year. Scattered cloud cover will persist
through this afternoon, clearing out later tonight as drier, more
stable conditions develop across the Southwest.

High temperatures will warm this afternoon, forecast to be roughly
10 degrees warmer compared to yesterday`s. Warming will continue
on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above average
by Tuesday. Temperatures each night will likely be on the colder
side due to drier conditions and clear skies.

As for winds, anticipate afternoon breezes of 10-25 mph each day
through Tuesday from the west-northwest today, followed by
southwest for Monday and Tuesday. Winds look to increase, 25-35
mph, for Wednesday into Thursday as global models suggest a
passing low pressure trough towards the north. Temperatures are
forecast to cool back down on Thursday, however, remaining near
average.

Precipitation chances are unlikely for much of this week with the
GEFS, ECMWF Ens, and NBM all suggesting dry conditions to close
out the month of April. Nothing on the horizon as we begin May,
however, the pattern across the West looks to remain unsettled.
All depends on how far south these potential longwave troughs dig
from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 28/12Z through Monday 29/12Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Light winds early will become westerly at 5-10 kts
with gusts to 20 kts after 16Z. Light and variable winds return
for the overnight period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 29/12Z through Wednesday 01/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts gusting as
high as 30 kts are forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Dry and warmer. Afternoon west-
northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph today, becoming southwest at 10-20
mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions are forecast. Warm on
Tuesday and Wednesday turning a bit cooler on Thursday with the
passage of a dry weather disturbance. Breezy southwest winds at 15
to 25 mph on Tuesday, becoming stronger at 20 to 30 mph for
Wednesday and Thursday with the disturbance.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/LaGuardia
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Benji

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff