Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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092 FXUS64 KFWD 080753 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 253 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Today through Friday Morning/ A warm front will continue to move northward this morning through the Southern Plains, pulling a moisture rich warm sector northward through North Texas. A dryline remains positioned across West Texas at this hour and will advance eastward through the day. Today`s commute will be quite warm and muggy as North and Central Texas find themselves entrenched within 60 and 70 degree dewpoints and a deck of low- level morning stratus. Forcing for ascent will be on the increase across the region today in response to both a shortwave trough rounding the periphery of the upper low and an upper level jet streak taking shape overhead. Down towards the surface our resident dryline will continue to move eastward this afternoon, eventually ending up just west of the I-35 corridor. The Pacific front/dryline will become the focus for convective development during the late afternoon and evening hours, with CAM guidance showing a blossoming of showers and storms near and east of I-35. Severe storms are likely at some point this afternoon with the greatest threat expected to be along and east of I-35 into our northeast counties. Forecast soundings show the environment in this area will feature 4000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, and >8 C/km lapse rates. Any storm that forms in this environment will quickly be able to become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Initial discrete storms off the dryline may have an increased tornado threat as low level winds will be slightly backed. We`ll need to closely watch this potential throughout the day. Otherwise, the overall tornado threat remains on the lower end as low level wind profiles are generally weak, but if winds start to trend more backed to the southeast, then the tornado threat may increase. Any lingering storms should exit to our east during the early overnight hours into Thursday. Meanwhile a cold front will continue to move south through the Central Plains as the aforementioned shortwave ejects to the northeast, bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures along behind it. Ample moisture and instability within the warm sector will allow for another shot at showers and storms both along and ahead of the frontal boundary during the day Thursday. The regional environment will once again feature ample MLCAPE, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates capable of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat remains low due to weak low level winds. The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday remains near the I-20 corridor and south into Central Texas. Long, straight hodographs and >8 C/km lapse rates across the Metroplex and south will lead to an increased potential for very large hail to occur during this time. The front will finally exit the region closer to daybreak Friday, ending all rain chances across our CWA. Left behind will be northerly winds and cooler morning lows in the 50s and 60s. There is potential for patchy fog on Thursday morning, impacting the commute with lowered visibility. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Onward/ Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions will be in place on Friday as surface high pressure builds south through the Southern Plains in the wake of Thursday/Thursday night`s cold front. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s through Saturday night, making for a great start to the weekend. Highs in the mid and upper 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday, with only a slight warm-up expected on Saturday. Friday night`s lows in the 50s to lower 60s may be some of the cooler air we will experience until fall. Return flow will commence on Sunday as the post-frontal surface ridge heads for the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will also be on the increase starting Sunday as the next upper low approaches from the west. Rain chances will begin across the southwest zones as early as Saturday night, then increase from southwest to northeast as isentropic lift strengthens in advance of the upper low (and deep layer moisture increases). Thursday`s front will have become stationary along the Gulf Coast by the weekend, keeping thunderstorms elevated in nature as the upper low continues east through the Plains Sunday night and Monday. This will limit the severe weather threat, though some storms will be capable of hail and locally heavy rain. The greater concern may again be the threat for flooding due to the saturated soils in place across the region and the slow eastward progression of the upper low. Model solutions deviate considerably after Monday regarding the evolution of the upper level system. The stronger and more progressive solutions end rain chances by Tuesday as the low moves east, while the slower, weaker solutions keep rain chances going through the middle of next week. Will remain conservative with POPs after Monday at this time and narrow the window as better resolution data arrives in the coming days. In either case, it looks like an unsettled weather pattern will persist through at least the middle part of the month. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 119 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ Southerly winds will continue through the morning hours as a surge in MVFR (and possibly IFR) stratus blankets the TAF sites overnight. Probabilities for IFR have lowered at ACT, but there is still a decent signal in guidance so have kept a mention of IFR as a TEMPO from 08-11Z. By the afternoon, cigs will have lifted to VFR and winds will have veered more southwesterly ahead of an incoming front. Scattered storms are expected to form near the I-35 corridor late this afternoon off of a dryline/cold front and move east, but confidence in exact location of the dryline is still a bit uncertain. Have introduced a VCTS from 23-03Z for this possibility and will update for any direct terminal impacts in further issuances. The front will shift winds to the north- northeast at D10 by 03Z tonight, while ACT remains southerly throughout the TAF period. Another deck of MVFR stratus will impact the TAF sites near daybreak Thursday morning. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 69 81 63 79 / 10 10 40 20 0 Waco 89 71 82 63 78 / 20 5 40 20 0 Paris 86 66 81 60 77 / 40 40 30 20 0 Denton 91 65 80 60 77 / 10 10 30 20 0 McKinney 89 66 80 61 76 / 20 20 30 20 0 Dallas 92 69 81 63 79 / 20 20 40 20 0 Terrell 88 69 81 61 77 / 30 20 40 30 0 Corsicana 89 72 82 63 79 / 20 20 40 30 0 Temple 89 70 84 64 79 / 10 0 30 20 5 Mineral Wells 91 65 79 60 77 / 5 5 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$