Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
201 FXUS65 KGGW 010846 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 246 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain shower chances with isolated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and diminish in most areas after sunset this evening. - Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms. The chances for rain and snow showers continue through Friday. - Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight through Friday night. - Another round of rain showers are expected next week, starting late Sunday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A slow moving upper level low will be along the Montana/Canada border until Friday. Look for cool temperatures with frequent chances for precipitation. Atmosphere will be unstable enough this afternoon and Thursday afternoon for thunderstorms in some areas. Temperatures aloft on Thursday behind the cold front will be cold enough for a mix of rain and snow showers. The chances for rain and snow showers continue until the low moves to the east Friday evening. NBM does have a 50 percent chance of 2 inches of snow in the higher elevations of the Little Rockies around Zortman between tonight and Friday morning. Otherwise, the probability of one inch of snow is less than 15 percent. Upper ridge this weekend will allow for mainly dry weather and warmer temperatures. The next trough/low is expected early next week. This system could be a prolific rain-maker as it stalls over the area, possibly starting off May with above normal rainfall. This should help out the farmers/ranchers as April was drier than normal for most of of the CWA. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: Confidence is medium that there will be rain showers this afternoon but low on specific locations and where any thunderstorms could occur. Confidence is high on the showers behind the cold front on Thursday but whether it will be rain or snow showers at a given point and time will depend on temperatures. Low confidence on the possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday. Medium confidence the rain/snow showers continuing through Friday. High confidence on the dry weather on Saturday and rain occurring sometime early next week with lower confidence on the timing and rainfall amounts. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0840Z, Wednesday morning May 1. FLIGHT CAT: VFR. DISCUSSION: Mostly clear this morning will gradually fill in with mid level clouds today. Mid level clouds will remain over the area tonight. Low clouds move in behind and cold front Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings possible. Unstable atmosphere this afternoon and evening will allow for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. WIND: West winds 5 to 10 knots become WSW 5 to 15 knots this afternoon. Winds will vary from SE to SW less than 10 knots tonight. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow