490
FXUS63 KGID 071732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today in the low 70s with a chance (15-25%) for showers this
evening across southeastern portions of the area.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and
Thursday.

- Highs in the 60s and 70s through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Today and Tonight...

Highs today will be in the 70s for most areas, with breezy westerly
winds gusting 30-35 mph. The upper level trough that passed through
the area on Monday will stall out over the northern Plains, along
with the associated surface low. As this low stalls out, it will
bring chances for scattered showers over the next few days. The
first chance (15-25%) for rain will arrive this evening across
southeastern portions of the area. Forecast soundings show a fairly
dry layer of air near the surface, indicating that any rain that
does make it through the dry air will be light in accumulation. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s with light winds.


Wednesday and Thursday...

The upper level low will begin to move to the southeast on Wednesday
as it reconnects with the jetstream. As it does this the surface low
will move across the area, bringing a cold front to the area
Wednesday night, with winds becoming breezy and northerly on
Thursday. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly cooler,
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon (15-25%) across
northern portions of the area. Scattered,.off and on shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Thursday night.
While chances are fairly low throughout this time period, the
highest and most widespread chances (20-40%) look to be Thursday
afternoon.


Friday through Monday..

The upper level low will become split on Friday, with part of the
low continuing to propagate east and a portion of the low becoming
cut off over the Southwest. Despite this cut-off low, broadly
northwesterly flow will build aloft this weekend. Highs this weekend
will be in the 70s to low 80s with mostly dry weather expected,
however a few thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) Sunday night. The
GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge towards the end of the forecast
period with when and how the cut-off low reconnects with the jet
stream. Scattered rain/thunderstorms are possible as this low
merges with the jet stream.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty out of the west to southwest this afternoon. Winds will
decrease this evening and become more southwesterly to
southerly. Westerly winds are expected to return around 09z then
winds will become northwesterly around 12z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Schuldt