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000
FNUS75 KGJT 250215
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Avalanche Creek Bravo...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
815 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies with light winds in the morning.
Clouds will increase late morning with scattered showers moving into
the area around noon becoming numerous by mid afternoon with embedded
scattered thunderstorms. Showers and storms may produce outflow gusts
over 40 mph, especially in the early afternoon. Showers diminish
through the evening, but will start to pick up again in the early
morning hours.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming partly sunny
                    (60-70 percent). Numerous rain showers, snow
                    showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....60-65.
Min humidity........22-27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good increasing to excellent in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 11300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 19 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Snow showers
                    likely in the evening. Chance of rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms through the
                    night. Chance of snow showers overnight.
CWR.................20 percent.
Min temperature.....35-40.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 15 mph decreasing to 10 mph
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12000-24000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 mph.

$$
Forecaster...David Byers
Requested by...Alexander Farinetti
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412089.1/GJT
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alexander.farinetti@usda.gov