938
FXUS63 KGLD 190815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will progress eastward from CO into western KS
  late this evening and overnight. A few severe storms are
  possible, mainly between ~7 PM and ~3 AM MDT.

- Severe storms capable of producing very large hail and
  damaging winds are possible in northwest KS and southwest NE
  Sunday afternoon, mainly between 3-9 pm MDT / 4-10 pm CDT.
  Latest guidance suggests that the severe weather threat in the
  Goodland CWA will be isolated in nature (i.e. not widespread).
  Thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential increases
  with eastern extent into central KS. In other words, locations
  along/east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk.

- Cooler with frost concerns mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Through Noon on Sunday: Southern stream shortwave energy
presently located invof the southern CA/AZ border will track ENE
across the 4-Corners and central Rockies (tonight) and adjacent
portions of the High Plains (Sunday morning). Current and
recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that scattered
diurnal convection developing along the Palmer Divide this
afternoon will progress eastward to the CO/KS border this
evening.. continuing eastward across northwest KS overnight.
Guidance suggests that convection will increase in both coverage
and intensity this evening and overnight.. aided and assisted
(presumably) by DPVA attendant the aforementioned shortwave
energy (approaching from the SW-WSW) and strengthening low-level
(SFC-H85) warm advection over western KS.. when modest (albeit
increasing) airmass destabilization and strengthening deep layer
shear appear supportive of severe weather.. especially if
forcing is favorably/further augmented by convection itself
(e.g. an MCV).. mainly in the 03-09 UTC time frame. Wind gusts
up to 65 mph, quarter size hail and torrential rainfall appear
to be the primary hazards.

Sun PM-Sun night: Challenging forecast. Early morning
convection may significantly alter environmental conditions over
the Tri-State area during the day on Sunday, esp. in a pattern
characterized by a rather weak/broad/ill-consolidated lee
cyclone in southeast CO. Latest available guidance indicates a
scenario characterized by little/low convective coverage over
northwest KS and southwest NE Sunday afternoon, suggesting that
severe weather in the Goodland CWA may be isolated in nature
(i.e. not widespread).. and largely confined to the 21-03 UTC
time frame. Very large hail and damaging winds appear to be the
primary hazard(s). Broadly speaking, guidance continues to
indicate that convective coverage and severe weather potential
increases with eastern extent into central KS. In other words,
locations along/east of Highway 283 appear to be most at-risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Broad southwesterly flow continues across the central CONUS
through the entire long term period. Embedded shortwave troughs
will provide near daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Severe chances appear rather limited
however, mainly due to a lack of instability. The one exception
might be Thursday, with decent moisture return resulting in
instability of 1000-2000 j/kg by the afternoon. However,
Thursday is also the day with the lowest deep layer shear, 20-30
kts, so that may limit any severe potential. For Wednesday and
Friday, very little instability, either surface based or
elevated, is forecast for the area. There is some weak
instability by Saturday, along with very good deep layer shear,
which may result in low probabilities for severe storms.

Temperatures through the period show some minor fluctuations
associated with occasional frontal passages. The coolest day
will be Wednesday with lower 70s, and the warmest will be
Thursday with low to mid 80s, then 70s and 80s for Friday and
Saturday. Some patchy frost possible Wednesday morning in
Colorado with upper 30s currently forecast for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the
period. Will need to watch for some potential MVFR or IFR
ceilings as there could be some moisture moving in and
saturating the lowest 2000ft. Chances have decreased compared to
the prior TAF forecast so have opted for only MVFR ceilings at
this time. Otherwise, storms are forecast to move near or over
the terminal during the late afternoon hours. Storms may just
form over the terminal so will need to watch the 21Z-02Z
timeframe. Severe weather is also possible with large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through most of the
period. Showers and storms will remain possible through the
first 9 hours of the period as guidance suggests that a boundary
on the back side of the current line may spark more storms close
to 12Z. With the moisture in the area, ceilings could still
drop to MVFR levels around 09Z. The ceilings and any lingering
shower/storms should clear by the late morning hours. Around
00Z, will need to watch for more storms, though guidance has
been favoring tracks away from the terminal. However, if a storm
did form or move over the terminal, it could be severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024