Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 210915
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
215 AM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Above normal temperatures will be present today and Friday,
before a cooling trend moves in for the weekend.

2. A 10-20 percent probability of thunderstorms in the San
Joaquin Valley late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

3. The next storm system will impact Central California by this
weekend, resulting in periods of rainfall in the San Joaquin
Valley and snowfall in the Sierra Nevada.

4. A warming trend will take place next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridging pattern will remain over Central
California today, resulting in a continuation of above average
temperatures for the forecast area. Much of the San Joaquin
Valley and Kern County Desert will experience maximum
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, five to eight degrees
above normal for this time of year. Below are probabilities of
exceedance of 75 degrees today for select areas of the San
Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert.

Fresno 71%Visalia 56%
Delano 51% Hanford 51%
Lemoore 46% Bakersfield 36%
Madera 31% Reedley 31%
Porterville 21%  Merced11%

China Lake 100%Edwards AFB 76%
Mojave    2%

Looking closer to the surface, a lower level high pressure
system off the Pacific coast will shift winds in the Central
Valley to the North to Northeast with gusts peaking around ten
to fifteen miles per hour. Subsiding air through the atmosphere
is expected to bring clear conditions to the lower elevations of
the forecast region; some overreaching moisture will cause
cloudier conditions in the Sierra Nevada early this morning.

As we move closer to the weekend, an upper level trough will
begin approaching the Pacific coast, bringing increased chances
for precipitation for Central California. The cyclonic nature of
the upper level system will bring a band of moisture from the
Southwest to the region, with precipitation starting Friday
afternoon. Warm air advection associated with this system will
continue the above normal temperatures for Friday, with
afternoon maximums similar to Thursday across the region. The
warmer conditions will bring a chance for convective potential,
especially for the northern portion of our CWA, and a few
thunderstorms may be possible Friday afternoon and evening.

As Saturday approaches, the aforementioned upper level low
pressure trough will begin to move on-shore into the Pacific
Northwest. The cooler moisture from the north Pacific Ocean will
wrap around the center of the low, bringing below average
maximum afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s for
Saturday. Precipitation is expected to transition to more
stratiform rainfall in the lower elevations, though a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for the areas north of Kern
County. The following are probabilities for 0.25 inches or
greater between 11 PM PDT Friday and 11 PM PDT Saturday.

Reedley 71% Merced61%
Fresno 61% Madera 51%
Hanford 51%Visalia 46%
Porterville 41%Lemoore 26%
Delano 26%Bakersfield 21%

In addition to rainfall potential in the valley, there will be
periods of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada. Snow levels in
association with the upper level system will begin around 7,000
feet but will gradually lower to near 4,000 feet by Sunday as
the northwesterly flow brings cooler air to the region. Moderate
to Major winter storms impacts are possible, with NBM
probabilities showing 50-60% or greater for 6 inches of
snowfall above 5,500 feet and totals as high as one to three
feet at the highest elevations.

Cooler conditions are expected to continue through the weekend
as the upper level flow continues from the north and northwest.
Weaker upper level forcing will result in a slight warming trend
over the region early next week, however maximum temperatures
will be hovering around 70 degrees which is near the seasonal
averages for this time of year. Around midweek, a second,
slightly weaker system will move into the Pacific Northwest,
bringing an additional chance for precipitation to the forecast
area. Early indications show rainfall around one to two tenths
of an inch with snowfall in the Sierra Nevada similar to this
weekend`s system.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/20/2024 14:09
EXPIRES: 03/21/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public/aviation...SM
IDSS.............BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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