791
FXUS64 KHUN 301049
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
549 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to track east
through the local area this morning, ahead of a weak cold front
currently approaching the lower MS River Valley/lower OH River
Valley. These storms will be efficient rainfall producers given
PWATs above 1.5" and the slow forward progress thanks to weak
shear. 6 hourly rainfall estimates by radar show between 2-3
inches have fallen across far NW AL, and this is supported by
several ground observing sites in the area. Despite the heavy
rainfall amounts, relatively dry grounds should mitigate most if
not all flooding concerns through the morning hours as these
showers/storms slowly clear the area to the east. Severe weather
is not expected given weak synoptic forcing and shear. Overnight
runs were consistent with previous forecasts, having dry
conditions return to the area shortly after noon with clearing
skies several hours before sunset. The sun should help us warm
into the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon, with the warmest
temperatures over NW AL where more hours of direct sunlight is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure will begin to shift east into the area late this
afternoon into tonight. The main concern tonight will be fog
development lasting into the morning commute hours. Given recent
rainfall, clear skies, and light winds... will be a favorable
setup for fog in at least the usual fog prone river valleys. Will
have to monitor closely overnight in case a Dense Fog Advisory is
needed. Upper ridging/high pressure will keep conditions warm and
dry through Thursday, with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the lower 60s. Southerly flow will bring increasing
moisture to the area Thursday night ahead of our next system,
resulting in increasing clouds and low chances (20-30%) for
showers and storms over NW AL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The latest suite of global model guidance suggests that the TN
Valley will remain beneath a region of light and generally
unamplified WSW flow aloft throughout the duration of the extended
forecast period, featuring mid-level wind speeds of 25-30 knots
at most. In the low-levels a warm/moist airmass will reside across
the region, with dewpoints expected to be in the l-m 60s on
Friday/Saturday, before perhaps rising into the m-u 60s on
Sunday/Monday. This will yield seasonably high values of CAPE
(particularly during the afternoon hours, when boundary layer
temperatures should rise into the l-m 80s). At this point, it
appears as if coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
highest on Friday afternoon/evening, which is the timeframe when a
weak cold front may drift southeastward into the CWFA prior to
stalling. The front may indeed remain in the region for much of
the day on Saturday (warranting a continuation of low-medium
chances for showers and storms), before returning northward on
Sunday as an amplified trough in the northern stream induces
cyclogenesis in the lee of the northern Rockies. Although the
atmosphere will be moderately unstable each day, vertical wind
shear will not be conducive for the development of organized
convection and lightning/locally heavy rainfall should be the
primary storm impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions are ongoing across the region as showers
and storms continue to track east this morning. Rain has ended at
KMSL and improving conditions are expected through the remainder
of the day. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to
persist at KHSV for the next couple of hours, but should push east
of the terminal by 13-14z. Reductions to MVFR/IFR conditions will
be possible by any heavier showers. Clearing skies are forecast
during the afternoon, and patchy fog will be possible tonight.
Confidence in fog was too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25