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000
FXUS63 KICT 210511
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Very light rain showers depart this evening

* Patchy frost possible tonight and again Sunday night

* Below normal temperatures continue into Sunday, warming trend into
  next week

* Very high fire danger Monday afternoon along/west of I-135

* Rain showers possible late Monday and late Tuesday night

* Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

As of 2 PM Saturday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow was present
across much of the CONUS with a trough axis progressing through
the Great Lakes region. A midlevel baroclinic zone remains
positioned across the central Plains with a band of weak
frontogenesis near 700mb across central KS. This continues to
yield very light rain showers. Very dry sub-cloud layers have
wetbulbed temperatures to near 34-38, yielding a few snowflakes
from time to time. All-in-all, total rain and snow
accumulations will be a trace to a few hundredths at most. With
the lingering cloud cover, temperatures may only increase a few
more degrees into the mid 40s across central KS to the lower
50s across south-central KS and near 60 across southeast KS.
The main challenge tonight will be residual cloud cover and the
affect on temperatures. Latest short range deterministic and
ensemble probabilities keep much of the forecast area near or
above 40 degrees, due persistent cloud cover. In addition, a
modest pressure gradient ~4mb should keep wind speeds in the
5-10 mph through much of the night, limiting the potential for
frost. Surface ridging slides into the forecast area Sunday,
yielding light and variable winds with decreasing cloud cover.
Temperatures will near the 60 degree mark by afternoon. Surface
ridging will slide across southeast KS tomorrow night, yielding
light winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Patchy
frost is possible across southeast KS Sunday night.

The next rain chance arrives Monday evening into Monday night as a
northern stream midlevel trough progresses across the northern
Plains. A deepening surface trough axis across the high Plains will
generate a tight pressure gradient with southerly wind gusts up to
45 mph likely Monday afternoon. As far as rain chances go, the best
rain chances will remain northeast of the forecast area, although
trends will need to be monitored throughout the weekend.

Midlevel ridging will gradually amplify through midweek across the
Plains. Low-level WAA by midweek may yield showers and storms,
especially across southern KS/OK. The midlevel ridge axis will slide
east Thursday with longwave troughing overspreading the western
CONUS. A lead shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible with its passage.
The pattern appears to remain active into next weekend with more
chances for showers and storms. Severe storms appear possible
late next week into the weekend but confidence in exact
locations/hazards is low and will need to be ironed out
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side.

Scattered mid level clouds will remain in place through at least
the morning hours as an upper impulse sinks south across the
Central Plains. Northwest winds are expected to remain in place
today and will also remain relatively light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Very high fire danger is likely Monday afternoon.

Strong southwest winds are expected on Monday with gusts by the
afternoon hours in the 40-45 mph range, especially across
central KS. Afternoon RH`s on Mon afternoon are forecast to
generally be around 30%. These conditions will lead to very high
grassland fire danger for location generally along and
especially west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BMB