804
FXUS63 KICT 282021 AAA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm threat over eastern
  Kansas through this evening.

- Ongoing flooding concerns over southeast Kansas.

- A few more rounds of thunderstorms and potential severe
  weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this
evening over eastern Kansas, along/ahead of an approaching weak
Pacific cool front, and associated upper forcing approaching from
the southwest. Frontal convergence and upper forcing isn`t terribly
strong, and instability is on the lower side, which should tend to
keep storms isolated to widely scattered at best. Modest effective
deep layer shear of only 30-40 kts along with the modest at best
instability should keep thunderstorm magnitude in check through the
evening, although can`t rule out a strong to marginally severe
storms capable of wind/hail. Greater thunderstorm coverage is
expected just east/southeast of the forecast area late this
afternoon through the evening.

Various areal flooding warnings and river flood warnings remain in
effect over southeast Kansas, stemming from excessive runoff from
yesterday/last night`s thunderstorms. Even though the threat for
additional widespread heavy rainfall has ended, any additional
pockets of rainfall could aggravate ongoing flooding concerns. So
will keep the southeast KS flood watch in effect until about 7 PM
this evening.

An active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise returns off-and-on from
Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, as a wobbly frontal zone
and a pair of shortwaves traverses Mid-America. The shear and
buoyancy combination favors severe weather potential, along with
pockets of heavy rainfall and flooding. Buoyancy/instability looks
potentially quite strong all three days given rich low-level
moisture amidst steep mid-level lapse rates, which should compensate
for the more modest deep layer shear values. Large hail and damaging
winds look to be the primary threats, although a few tornadoes are
possible, especially during the evening hours when low-level shear
strengthens amidst strengthening low-level jet. Stay tuned, as we
continue to refine the forecast the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR and patchy IFR ceilings will gradually give way to SCT-BKN
VFR clouds from the west today through this evening, as a weak
cold front moves east through the region. Breezy south-southwest
winds will prevail ahead of the front over eastern Kansas, with
breezy west-northwest winds in its wake further west. Can`t rule
out a few stray thunderstorms this afternoon through early
evening over far eastern Kansas (mainly along/east of the Flint
Hills), but did not include this threat at CNU due to low
coverage. Some potential for low clouds/visibilities to
redevelop this evening-overnight over far southeast Kansas, but
only hinted at this threat at CNU with FEW009 SCT015 for now.
Winds will switch back around to south-southwest for Monday,
with light to modest speeds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK