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000
FXUS61 KILN 182359
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
759 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers
and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday. High
pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing below normal
temperatures and the chance for frost early Sunday morning.
Temperatures remain slightly below normal into the following
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
700H wave moving through the larger flow will progress through
the region this evening with its attendant surface low riding up
from the Ozarks region. Congruent with previous thinking, a
decaying MCS will move central Indiana into our CWA sometime
late evening to around midnight. Severe threat looks pretty
limited, given any residual daytime instability being pinched
off earlier in the evening. However, some elevated instability
may still be present and therefore cannot rule out an isolated
strong to severe embedded storm making it into our western CWA.
Should this happen, primary concern would be strong/damaging
wind gusts, but it should also be noted that there will be
/very/ subtle turning in the low levels, resulting in a non-zero
tor threat (but pretty close). As the complex progresses east
through the CWA it continues to weaken with the result that by
the time it hits central Ohio during the early morning hours,
we`ll likely have something closer resembling a broken line of
showers on radar reflectivity.

Overnight low temperatures fall to the low 50s in west central
Ohio and low 60s in southern Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Friday morning, the low pressure system will have moved off
to the northeast and rain will be tapering to an end across the
CWA. Quite a tight pressure gradient will be in place in the
cold air advection regime, so expecting some gusty northwesterly
winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts to 25-30 MPH, particularly in
west central Ohio. Winds decrease as the day wears on.

Surface high pressure nudges in from the northern Great
Plains and some residual low level moisture remains, keeping
partly cloudy skies in place. High temperatures reach the upper
50s in west central Ohio and upper 60s along the Ohio River/
Tri-State region.

Friday night remains dry and cooler, with lows in the mid 40s
area wide as the high pressure continues to nudge into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift southeast across the region
Saturday through Monday. This will lead to dry but seasonably cool
conditions. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s to lower
60s, moderating a bit by Monday to highs in low to mid 60s. Some
frost will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday night as
overnight lows drop into the 30s.

In northwest flow aloft, an upper level disturbance will move
southeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. An associated
surface low will move across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night
with a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of
this, showers will become likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Instability looks to be fairly limited, so only expect some
lower chances for embedded thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 60s.

High pressure and a drier airmass will settle into the area
Wednesday into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with highs on Thursday mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. High clouds will
continue to work into the region. A system will work into the
TAF sites tonight and decrease in intensity as it does. There
will be a higher chance for thunderstorms across the western TAF
sites KCVG, KLUK, KDAY, and KILN than KCMH and KLCK. Cigs will
lower with this feature and after its passage. In addition,
vsbys may be reduced with the precipitation. After the passage
of this feature winds will shift and become gusty. Wind gusts
will start to decrease later in the day and cigs will gradually
become VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions along with thunderstorms are possible
on Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...