359
FXUS63 KIWX 301713
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
113 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected Friday.

- Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak cold front through nw zones will wash ewd through daybreak with
post frontal drying yielding pleasant wx into Thu. That said
insolation/diurnal heating will bump mixed layer appreciably this
aftn and tomorrow aftn with gusty west winds for a time.

Rather chaotic and unsettled flow pattern up near the US/Canada
border remains with next disturbance and associated jet streak
progged to drive east out of the cntrl Rockies early Thu and through
the upper midwest early Fri. Robust return flow ahead of this sys
slated Thu although maximized west near the MS valley. Warm frontal
zone extending ewd into the srn lakes lacking early on but a few
showers or storms by late aftn west. Cold front tied to upper wave
accelerating into Canada looks to push through Thu night with
brief/flat ridging following into early Sat before return flow
reemerges ahead of another fast moving wave ejecting a bit further
south into the wrn lakes Sat aftn. Nrn track of both systems not
ideal with swd dwindling frontal forcing noted which will limit
overall rain chances here. More concerted area of high pressure
noted through the lakes Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low level ridge axis positioned west of the area this afternoon
will continue to provide west northwest winds around 10 knots
with a few gusts into the 15 to 18 knot range through around
21Z. After 21Z, gradual waning of diurnal mixing and weakening
gradient with the approaching low level ridge will result in a
brief period of light and variable winds this evening followed
by onset of light south winds. This ridge will be quite
progressive in nature allowing for south winds to increase into
the 10 to 15 knot range late tonight with a fairly early onset
of gusts to around 20 knots on Wednesday morning. Passage of
this ridge axis will also mark the onset of some fairly
substantial low-mid level moisture advection. The combination of
this moisture advection and the possibility of a weak remnant
convective vort max emanating from the Corn Belt could give rise
a few isolated showers very late tonight across NW Indiana.
Coverage of any shower activity should be limited and does not
appear to warrant any mention in terminal forecasts at this
time. Dry conditions persist into Wednesday with breezy
conditions and southwest winds gusting to around 25 knots. In
addition, there could be a very narrow temporal window for some
LLWS criteria at KSBN toward daybreak, but feel this setup is
marginal enough and of short enough duration to refrain from any
mention at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili