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000
FXUS64 KJAN 140601 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
101 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

Near term remains quiet and dry heading into the evening and
Sunday as the upper ridge/surface high continue to influence our
weather. Clear skies and overnight temperatures in the 50s are
expected. The upper-ridge/surface high is expected to slightly
strengthen and slowly track eastward over the southeastern CONUS
on Sunday. As the pattern shifts and strengthens, southwesterly
winds (gusty at times) and moisture will increase across the area.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain above average with
highs reaching the lower 80s. /SW/

Sunday night through Friday night:

Come Sunday evening surface ridging will be along the Gulf coast
states from the east while a mid level ridge will be over the
central CONUS. This mid level ridge will be downstream of a closed
low that will move from Nevada to the Four Corners region by
Monday evening. The return flow will work to increase PWATs back
above one inch by Monday evening. The closed low will track east
across the central Plains through Tuesday morning before shifting
to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. Ridging surface and aloft look
to remain dominant over our CWA most of Tuesday but the low level
moisture increase will lead to rain chances increasing across our
northwest as the cold front associated with the nearly stacked
low pressure system over the central Plains approaches. The nearly
stacked low will continue tracking northeast Tuesday night and
Wednesday essentially stranding the cold front just northwest of
our CWA. Heights look to remain rather high over most of our CWA
but there will be enough favorable ingredients that isolated
severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening; and
perhaps across our northern most zones Wednesday afternoon before
this system totally fizzles Wednesday evening. Little if any
precipitation is currently anticipated south of Interstate 20.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning dry weather is expected
areawide but another closed low tracking along the Canadian and
northern Plains border will drop another cold front our way. Rain
chances look to return to the northwest half of the CWA Thursday
afternoon and continue into Friday evening in the south as the
slow moving cold front is expected to stall across our southern
zones Friday night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, however there is some chance for patchy BR to develop
around 12Z Sunday near KHBG or KPIB. Confidence in impacts was too
low to mention in TAFs at this time. Winds will gust to around
20kts between 15Z and 00Z today. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  83  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      54  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     59  83  65  84 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   55  83  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       59  83  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    62  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  20
Greenwood     60  81  65  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/22/NF