Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 282343
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
743 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

As an upper trough passes over the region this afternoon, there is a
slight chance for a shower to develop during the mid to late afternoon
hours, with that chance ending in the evening as the system moves offshore.
Otherwise, the cloudiness over the eastern counties will gradually decrease
during the remainder of the day, with mostly clear skies expected over the
forecast area Tonight, as high pressure gradually builds toward the forecast
area from the west. Winds will become light during the evening. Current low
temperature forecast Tonight looks good, with mid 40s across
inland se GA, 45-50 for inland ne FL, and lower 50s immediate
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High pressure will settle overhead during the day on Friday. With
subsidence under the high, clear skies are expected. Temperatures
will be a little below normal though due to weak cold advection
following Todays frontal passage. The coolest readings will be near
the coast, due to flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters.
Water temps along the coast are still running in the 60s.

The high will build more toward the east southeast Friday night
through Sunday, with ridging remaining across region. With the ridge
more to the east southeast, the flow will come more from the
southwest over the weekend. This flow will allow for more passing
clouds, and moderating temperatures. After another below normal
night Friday night, readings will be above normal for Saturday
through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The high will slowly drift to the southeast through Tuesday, with
ridge still extending over region. A cold front will approach from
the northwest Tuesday, with clouds increasing ahead of it. Sunday
night through Tuesday will remain dry with a gradual increase in
cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with
Tuesday being the warmest day with strong southwest flow keeping
the sea breeze pinned offshore. A few locations over eastern
portions of NE FL could touch 90 on Tuesday. Looking back, the
last time JAX reached 90 was on 9/25/23. Had a pair of 88 degree
days this month. So, if it makes it to 90 Tuesday, will be first
time in over 6 months.

Current model timing brings the cold front into inland areas
during the night Tuesday night, with precipitation chances
extending across the forecast area. The front will then move
southeast of area Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to accompany the frontal passage. While much of the
better support will be further north, closer to low center, can
not rule out potential for strong to severe storms, especially if
stronger upper waves pass through the base of accompanying upper
trough. Wednesday will be a transition day as far as temperatures,
as it may still be an above normal day depending on frontal
timing, but will usher in a period of cooler than normal days.

High pressure will build to the northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday, with the region drying out. Temperatures will trend a
little below normal Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Weakening TSRA that has just moved across SSI, JAX and CRG will
impact SGJ near the start of the 00Z period. However, as just SHRA
with gusts near 20kts and vsby briefly near MVFR with the
weakening trend.

Otherwise, VFR is in place or building in elsewhere, which will
prevail for all sites by late tonight and through the rest of the
forecast period. Winds will become northeasterly on Friday and
near to just above 10kts by Friday Afternoon and Evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A wave of low pressure near the Carolina coast Today will move further
away from our area Friday while high pressure builds in from the west.
The pressure gradient between these features will keep winds in the
caution range nearshore, and advisory level offshore through Tonight.
As the high builds over the waters Friday into the Weekend, the gradient
will substantially weaken, resulting in lighter winds and lower seas.
Winds will become more southwesterly Sunday and Monday as the high
moves east of the waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High through this afternoon, Moderate
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  50  67  50  74 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  47  71  45  79 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  53  71  50  77 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  47  75  45  79 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  49  76  47  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$


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