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000
FXUS62 KJAX 220726
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
326 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

After yesterday`s cold front, cool high pressure moves in from the
north and northwest today, while strong mid/upper level trough
expected to swing across through the forecast area. Breezy north
to northeast winds expected today near 10-20 mph, strongest at the
coast, with cloudiness this morning anticipated to diminish through
the afternoon hours as drier air filters in. Still just a slight
chance of a passing shower along the St Johns and Flagler county
coast during the 1st half of today. Highs today will be a good
8-12 degrees cooler than yesterday, with 70s most everywhere.

Tonight, mostly clear skies in the evening with northeast winds
of 5-15 mph, strongest at the coast. Winds will lighten overnight,
while directions back to more due north as some drainage type flow
develops. Lows were adjusted slightly downward from previous but
close to the NBM still with mid 40s north zones to upper 40s and
lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure will build overhead allowing for clear skies and a
warm up in temperatures following the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures Tuesday will stay just below normal in the 70s, with
most locations rising up to the lower 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak cold front will approach from the north on Thursday, however
conditions will be too dry for any precipitation potential. Temperatures
will stay warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day as southeasterly
winds fill in, keeping the coast a few degrees cooler than inland
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Solid MVFR cigs over the area with a northerly wind of about 7-12 kt
early this morning, after the frontal passage from late yesterday.
Sfc winds will increase to about 9-15 kt by late morning, and
then diminish tonight. Cigs will only gradually lift through the
morning hours...but with periods of SCT-BKN MVFR clouds.
Prevailing VFR clouds not expected until this afternoon for all
the TAFs, though some possible scattered or brief broken MVFR
deck at SGJ with the MVFR chance of less than 25 percent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Winds and seas increasing as expected with small craft advisories
beginning soon as the cold front shifts well south of the area.
So far, sustained north winds are noted to near 15-20 kt and seas
at the area buoys reading about 3-4 ft, and higher offshore would
assume. Only slight adjustments to the start and end time of the
advisories, mainly to broaden the time frame a bit. Winds and seas
should diminish Tuesday aftn as high pressure builds in.

High pressure moves east of the waters Wednesday resulting in
winds turning to the southeast and then south. Another frontal
boundary will move into the region on Thursday, but tend to weaken
and shift back north over the weekend, but these conditions
don`t support advisories at this time.

Rip Currents: As wind waves continue to grow today, increased
threats of rip currents and longshore currents expected for the
northeast FL beaches so have hoisted a high rip current risk.
The rip current risk was then extended into Tuesday, given the
rough surf that is still expected, and winds, though lighter,
will be directly onshore. Generally lower risk, at moderate
category for southeast GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Drier air will move in following the cold frontal passage as winds
turn northerly, dropping minRH to near 40% for most of inland SE
GA and NE FL today. By Tuesday, RH will drop further, with portions
of inland SE GA and NE FL seeing minRH values below 35%.
Dispersion values will be very high over inland SE GA and portions
of inland NE FL today, with values dropping significantly on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  47  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  55  72  57 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  71  52  74  54 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  71  58  74  57 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  74  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ470-472-474.



&&

$$