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000
FXUS63 KLBF 161129
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  A storm system will continue to impact the area today into tonight,
   with widespread showers and thunderstorms along with strong
   northwest winds.

-  Another quick moving system pushes through the area
   Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing a brief round
   of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

-  Additional precipitation chances exist into the weekend and
   early next week, with continued below average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The strong upper low, currently located over southwest Nebraska,
will continue to slowly push eastward through the day today. An
associated cold front will move across the area from west to east
into this afternoon, with quickly increasing northwest winds in its
wake. As cold advection increases substantially behind the cold
front, ample mechanical mixing should be achieved to transfer higher
momentum flow downward to the surface. H7-H85 flow on the order of
50-60kts should support surface gusts around 60 to 65 miles per hour
this afternoon, primarily near and south of HWY 2 and west of HWY
47. This is where the strongest flow should overlap with the best
cold advection and associated mechanical mixing. Additionally,
widespread showers with some embedded thunder will continue on the
backside of the departing low, translating across the area from west
to east through the afternoon. Locally stronger gusts will be
possible in any precipitation, which could also aid in downward
momentum transfer.

The precipitation will largely occur in two regimes, the first being
ongoing thunderstorms, generally along and east of HWY 83 this
morning. Additional development through late this morning will lead
to locally heavy accumulations for areas of central and north
central Nebraska, east of HWY 83. Amounts of 1-2" are possible where
convection lingers the longest ahead of the slow moving surface cold
front.Also cannot rule out some marginally severe hail in elevated
storms through late this morning, as some high-res guidance
continues to point to redevelopment just ahead of the advancing
surface cold front. The next regime will be on the backside of the
surface low, where a more widespread stratiform precipitation shield
should develop. There does appear to be enough lingering elevated
instability to support embedded thunderstorms as well. This should
gradually translate from west to east this afternoon, with
additional accumulations of 0.10-0.50" for much of the area. The
higher amounts look to occur across the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska. The continued cold advection, lingering precipitation, and
cloudiness will lead to most locations already achieving their daily
high temperatures early this morning and temperatures gradually
fall through the day. By tonight, the low will begin to pull
away from the area, and precipitation should end from west to
east as dry air is ushered into the area. Lows tonight fall into
the upper 30s to 40s as the cold air advection gradually begins
to weaken.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Only a brief lull in the active regime is expected into
Wednesday, as another upper low ejects across
Saskatchewan/Manitoba Wednesday afternoon, dragging a trough
axis through the area into Thursday morning. Ahead of this
occurring, flow across southwest Nebraska does briefly
transition as a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado
lifts a warm front towards the I-80 corridor. This is quickly
overtaken by a fast moving cold front Wednesday night. This will
lead to a wide range in temperatures across the area, with low
to mid-70s south of I-80 and highs struggling to climb out of
the lower 50s in northwest Nebraska.

By Wednesday night, the mid-level trough axis will swing through the
area, with strong cold advection in its wake, leading to a quickly
tightening and narrow thermal gradient. In response, FGEN
increases rapidly, and the increased ascent should lead to a
narrow and potentially intense band of precipitation. Convective
enhancement looks probable too, with guidance continuing to
point towards some elevated instability present across the area.
As for p- type, cannot totally rule out snow mixing into rain
at times across the western Sandhills, though this remains low
confidence. Should this occur, temperatures look to remain
marginal near freezing and the ground remains warm from the well
above average temperatures the past few days. Add in a very
heavy and wet snow (SLRs ~6-9:1) and concern for much in the way
of accumulation is low. However, some slushy accumulations
would be possible should a changeover occur. Precipitation will
quickly exit the area from north to south Tuesday morning, with
around 0.75-1" of precipitation possible across the Sandhills.
Lesser amounts are expected with southward extent.

The active regime looks to persist into late week and the weekend,
with broad zonal flow gradually transitioning northwesterly. This
should provide additional precipitation chances, along with
continued below average temperatures to round out the week. The
period of highest confidence in additional precipitation looks to be
Friday night into Saturday, where rain mixing with snow appears
possible again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A powerful storm system crossing the state will result in a few
aviation weather concerns for western and north central Nebraska
terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread
across the forecast area today, resulting in gusty erratic winds
and low ceilings. Even outside rain shower activity, near
surface winds will strengthen steadily with gusts approaching
40 kts out of the northwest this afternoon. Precipitation and
overly blustery winds will begin to taper tonight with most
terminals returning to VFR by 17/09z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ022>025-035>037-056>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Snively