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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220859
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy at times today with high temperatures generally in the
  60s and potential for some isolated rain showers and general
  thunderstorms across portions of central Nebraska tonight.

- Seasonal temperatures continue through the week with highs generally
  in the 60s to lower 70s.

- Unsettled weather conditions likely for Thursday into the
  weekend with widespread accumulating rain likely (>80% chance
  for total rainfall of 0.25" or more) across western and north
  central Nebraska. However, the severe threat remains
  uncertain at this time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed deep low
pressure centered over the Hudson Bay with a trough extending south
into the Great Lakes and New England. Just to the south of this
feature, a shortwave trough was evident across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Another upper-level low pressure system was
advancing southeast across Saskatchewan with multiple
shortwaves traversing along the base of the trough over the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A transitory upper-
level ridge was noted in between the two Canadian upper-level
low pressure systems across the Upper Midwest region. Weak
upper-level ridging was noted over the west coast with an upper-
level trough digging south from the Gulf of Alaska. At the
surface, low pressure was centered over Saskatchewan with an
attendant cold front draped southwest across the northern
Plains, nudging into northwest Nebraska. Surface high pressure
was holding strong over the Middle Mississippi Valley and
southern Plains. A rather robust (40+ kts) southwesterly low-
level jet (LLJ) has developed with the surface pressure gradient
(SPG) tightening between the two surface features. As a result,
south-southwesterly winds have strengthened overnight with
periodic gusts of 20 to 30 mph. At 4 AM CT, temperatures ranged
from 43 at Imperial to 49 at Valentine.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today and Tonight... As the aforementioned surface low
continues southeast into Manitoba, the attendant cold front will
quickly sweep across western and north central Nebraska. Winds
will veer towards the northwest behind the frontal passage with
3 to 4 mb/3 hour pressure rises resulting in brief period of
gusty winds this morning into the mid-afternoon hours.
Widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected with the
strongest gusts up to 40 mph across the Nebraska/South Dakota
border. However, pressure falls quickly fill into the area
allowing the gusty winds to subside through the evening.
Seasonal temperatures are in store for western and north central
Nebraska today with highs in the 60s to lower 70s across
southwest Nebraska. Latest model guidance continues to suggest
light rain and general thunderstorms developing after sunrise
across southeast Nebraska due to a weak area of mid-level warm
air advection (WAA) behind the front. It appears the bulk of
this activity will reside to the south and east of the forecast
area, however, some isolated activity cannot be ruled out
for portions of central Nebraska through the overnight hours.
The severe threat appears minimal with any activity that does
develop across our area given limited moisture and instability.
Overnight temperatures fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s across
western and north central Nebraska.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Despite temperatures being a few
degrees cooler, an almost identical forecast as compared to
today is on tap for the area on Tuesday. Dry and quiet
conditions are expected during the day, though breezy at times
due to a tightened SPG. Northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph
will be common for most locations with the strongest gusts up to
35 mph expected across north central Nebraska. Daytime highs
will climb into near 60 degrees to lower 70s range under mostly
clear skies. A weak upper-level shortwave tracking out of the
central Rockies will bring a fairly quick-hitting chance for
precipitation Tuesday night across the southern Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska. Confidence remains rather low on the
potential for precipitation due limited moisture and weak
forcing across the area. Similar to tonight, low temperatures in
the mid 30s to low 40s are expected with winds veering towards
the south on the backside of the departing surface high
pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

On Wednesday, upper-level ridging will build back into the central
CONUS with a deepening upper-level trough of low pressure off the
California coast. Daytime temperatures warm back into the at to
slightly above normal range of mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday
and Thursday. The flow aloft will transition to southwesterly on
Thursday as the previously mentioned upper-level trough tracks
into the Four Corners region. As the upper-level trough
approaches the central Rockies, strong lee-cyclogenesis is
expected to occur across southeast Colorado, driven by strong
mid-level height falls and upper-level divergence under the
left exit region of the 250mb jet streak. This will be the mark
of a series of disturbances traversing through the region
through the weekend bringing continuous rain and thunderstorm
chances to the area. While there is quite a bit of spread
amongst models on exact timing of each of the individual
disturbances, there will certainly be some breaks in the
precipitation during this period. Although questions remain,
confidence continues to grow on the potential for widespread
wetting rain during this period. NBM Probabilities indicate an
80% chance or greater for 72 hour 0.25"+ liquid equivalent
precipitation across all of western and north central Nebraska.
When looking at probabilities for 0.5"+, the greatest
probabilities of >60% exists across much of the area. While the
severe threat remains uncertain at this time, embedded
thunderstorms appear possible which would result in locally
higher amounts to be possible with the potential for
thunderstorms during this period. Will continue to monitor this
timeframe as specific details become more clear with subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cold front will pass through western and north central
Nebraska overnight, clearing the area by mid morning Monday. In
the lead-up to the frontal passage, low level wind shear will
be possible at both terminals through sunrise Monday. Expect
southerly and southwesterly winds of 40 to 45 KTS 2000 FT AGL.
Once the front passes, winds will shift to the northwest, then
north, and will be gusty through early afternoon Monday. Gusts
up to 30 KTS are possible. Northerly winds will then slowly
diminish into Monday evening with speeds falling off to around
10 KTS. Skies will be scattered to broken with ceilings ranging
from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Buttler