Text Products for FWS Issued by LOT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Versions: 1 2
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FNUS73 KLOT 201939
FWSLOT

Spot Forecast for Charles Nelson...National Park service
National Weather Service Chicago IL
239 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (815) 834-0666 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to promote dry conditions through
Monday afternoon. Winds will become southwesterly Sunday night
which will begin to filter in warmer air to the region with highs
forecast to be in the mid-60s for both Monday and Tuesday. While
these winds will also work to increase dew points, the presence
of strong diurnal mixing (peak mixing heights around 5500 to 6000
ft Monday afternoon) looks to slow the increasing moisture and
produce minimum RH values around 30 percent Monday afternoon.
Couple this with the fact that wind speeds are also forecast to
increase Monday afternoon, gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range, and
there could be an elevated fire weather risk during this time.

Our next weather system is expected to move into the area Monday
night through the day on Tuesday bringing with it periods of
showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.
Additionally, the southwesterly winds will continue to increase as
the system moves through with gusts of 25 to 30 mph likely Monday
night through Tuesday afternoon.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly cloudy.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph increasing to 14 to 18
                    mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (88600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   2   4   6   10  22  37  50  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............38  42  46  50  53  57  58  60  62  63  63  62
RH..............82  70  63  56  50  43  42  39  36  35  35  36
20 FT wind dir..220 220 220 230 230 230 230 230 230 220 220 220
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   8   9   9   10  12  13  14  14  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.5 3.9
Transp wind dir.240 230 230 240 240 240 240 240 240 230 220 220
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   10  12  14  15  16  17  18  18  18
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   10  20  32  46  58  71  78  86  89  63

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph increasing to around 17
                    mph.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 24
                    mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (10500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  72  77  83  88  86  85  83  83  82  82  82
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............61  59  57  56  55  54  53  53  52  52  52  52
RH..............38  40  43  45  47  50  52  52  56  56  56  59
20 FT wind dir..210 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  13  14  15  16  17  17  17  18  20
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  17  18  20  21  23  24  26  26  28
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.210 210 210 200 200 200 200 200 200 210 210 210
Transp wind spd.18  17  18  18  20  21  21  22  22  23  23  24
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..37  11  11  11  11  13  14  16  15  15  15  18

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the
                    morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms through
                    the day. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 17 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 1-8 strikes.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (45300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  82  83  84  85  85  84  84  80  75  71  71
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............52  52  53  54  56  56  57  58  58  59  59  58
RH..............59  61  61  61  59  62  62  59  59  57  57  57
20 FT wind dir..210 210 210 220 220 220 220 220 220 230 230 240
20 FT wind spd..21  22  22  22  22  21  20  18  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.29  30  30  30  29  29  28  28  28  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.9
Transp wind dir.210 210 210 220 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 240
Transp wind spd.24  25  25  24  24  22  21  20  20  20  21  20
Chc of pcpn (%).50  60  60  60  60  60  60  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19  22  30  37  45  43  42  42  42  42  44  32

$$
Forecaster...Yack
Requested by...Kevin Chajka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411519.0/LOT
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
