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000
FXUS66 KLOX 252114
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
214 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/213 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep moist layer will keep temperatures
cooler than normal across Southwest California through Friday.
There should be some showers on the north mountain slopes Friday
into Saturday morning, otherwise dry weather can be expected
along with gradually warmer temperatures this weekend into the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...25/206 PM.

A deep moist layer continued into early this afternoon over the
forecast area, with plenty of lingering stratocu altho there were
some breaks here and there. The clouds are expected to scatter
out a bit more thru the afternoon for much of the coast and a few
adjacent vlys, but overall should linger for much of the coastal
slopes and inland vlys.

Gusty mainly sub-Advisory level NW to N winds are expected to
affect the Central Coast, the southwestern SBA County mtns and
coast, the Antelope Vly including foothills, and the L.A. County
mtns along the I-5 Corridor thru the afternoon hours. Otherwise,
breezy onshore winds can be expected this afternoon.

A cool air mass from a departing upper level trof will result in
afternoon temps being about 6-12 deg below seasonal norms. Highs
should only be in the 60s for much of the coast, vlys and deserts.

Weak upper level ridging thru this evening will be replaced by
upper level troffiness later tonight, with a stronger upper level
trof moving in from the N on Fri. This upper level trof will
linger over SW CA Fri night before exiting to the E on Sat. Upper
level ridging should then start to build into the area Sat night
and Sun, with H5 heights increasing to around 576-577 dam Sun
afternoon.

The main story of the upper level trof will be the winds. Strong
and gusty NW to N winds will cover much of the interior areas
tonight thru Fri night or Sat morning, as well as the SW SBA
County coast and mtns, where a series of Wind Advisories and High
Wind Warnings/High Wind Watches will be in effect. Gusts of 40 to
65 mph will be possible, strongest in the mtns. Gusty Advisory
level winds will also be possible for the Santa Clarita Vly and
along the Central Coast Fri afternoon into Fri night, where Wind
Advisories may be needed. Please see the latest Non-Precipitation
Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist tonight into Friday,
then be mainly on the N slopes Fri night into Sat morning, with a
slight chance to chance of showers and snow showers mainly on the
N mtn slopes. Mostly sunny skies can then be expected in all areas
Sat afternoon.

Marine layer low clouds and fog are expected to develop along
many coastal areas into some adjacent vlys Sat night into Sun
morning, otherwise mostly clear skies can be expected for the
second half of the upcoming weekend.

Temps are forecast to be several degrees below normal on Fri then
warm to near or slightly above normal by Sun. Temps over the
inland coast and vlys should reach the upper 60s to low 70s Fri,
the 70s on Sat, and in the 70s to around 80 on Sun.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...25/209 PM.

The EC and GFS deterministic and mean ensembles are in generally
good agreement during the extended period. Weak and mostly flat
upper level ridging will prevail over the region Mon and Tue,
followed by weak upper level troffiness Wed and especially Thu.

Dry weather will prevail over the forecast area Mon thru Thu. The
marine layer pattern is expected to continue thru the period,
with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog along
portions of the coast Mon and Tue, then expand along the coast
and extend inland to the adjacent vlys Wed and Thu. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly clear.

Temps are expected to be near normal to a few degrees above
normal on Mon, then increase to several degrees above normal for
many areas away from the immediate coast Tue and Wed. It should
turn cooler in all areas Thu with temps slightly below normal for
most areas, and a few degrees above normal for some interior
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1858Z.

At 1742Z at KLAX, the marine layer was up to 5000 ft, and a weak
inversion with a top around 5900 ft and a temperature of 5 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs. Today cigs will continue to clear and
lift until around 01Z Fri, then they will start to redevelop. Due
to a weakening inversion, clouds may be variable and scatter and
reform through the period. Expect mostly MVFR cigs tonight. Gusty
NW winds will affect southern SBA County and the I-5 Corridor,
and gusty W winds will continue and strengthen in the Antelope
Valley. LLWS and turbulence, with mdt UDDF near the mtns expected
starting, especially after 00Z Fri.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, with uncertainty in OVC015 cig
arrival timing/clearing. There is a 20% chance that conds will be
BKN035 or higher tonight. There is a 30% chance of east winds
reaching 8 kts from 08Z-14Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, with uncertainty in OVC015 cig
arrival timing/clearing. There is a 20% chance that conds will be
BKN035 or higher tonight.

&&

.MARINE...25/1202 PM.

In the Outer Waters, winds are mostly at at Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level. SCA level winds and seas will likely continue thru
Mon. There is a 30% chance of gales in the southern 2 zones
(PZZ673/676) this evening thru late tonight. There is a 60-80%
chance of gales across all of the outer waters Fri morning or
early Fri afternoon thru late Fri night, best chances in the
southern 2 zones. There is a 50% chance that gales will occur
again Sat afternoon into Sat night or possibly Sun, especially in
the southern zones.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, winds are just reaching SCA
levels. SCA level winds/seas will likely continue much of the
time thru Mon. There is a 50-70% chance of gales Fri
afternoon/evening, with a 30% chance of gales into Sat evening,
with a brief respite Sat morning.

In the Inner Waters S Pt Conception, SCA winds are occuring in
western portions of the SBA Channel, and spreading across the
rest of the Channel and into western portions of the southern
inner waters this afternoon. Winds may occasionally drop below SCA
levels late tonight or early Fri near the coast, then SCA level
winds and seas are expected from late Fri morning thru Sat night,
and most likely thru Mon. There is a 60-70% chance of gales Fri
afternoon into Fri night, with a 40-50% chance of gales Sat
afternoon into Sat night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zones 353-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Friday evening through late
      Friday night for zones 376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Saturday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from late tonight through late
      Friday night for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 645-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday
      evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday morning through late Friday
      night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late
      Friday night for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox