Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
320
FNUS71 KLWX 021234
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Swan Creek...VDOF
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
834 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge will build over the region today leading to hot
and dry conditions. A weak cold front will cross the area late
tonight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary
cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area
Sunday into early next week. This will result in increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler conditions.
RH values in the 50 to 60 percent range this morning fall back into
the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. Light west to southwesterly
flow is expected today with sunny skies. Winds remain light through
Friday with precipitation chances expected to increase Friday night.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 4 mph late in
the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Light west to northwest winds in the morning,
then shifting to south to southwest 2 to 5 mph
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (27400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............72 79 85 88 89 90 91 91 91
RH..............64 52 41 36 34 33 31 31 30
20 FT wind dir..SW SE E E S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6
20 FT wind gust.3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW SE E E S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW W SW SW SW S
Transp wind spd.1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5
Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 3 8 11 13 21 27 24
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 4 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming west around 3 mph
after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 to 6 mph in the evening,
then becoming light in the late evening to
overnight, then west round 5 mph after 3 am.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the west
around 2 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16700 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........10 9 12 11 4 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............87 80 73 68 66 63
RH..............36 49 59 70 73 81
20 ft wind......S 6 S 5 SW 3 W 3 W 3 W 5
20 ft wind gust.7 6 5 5 5 6
Eye level wind..S 4 S 3 SW 2 W 2 W 2 W 3
Eye lvl wnd gst. 4 3 3 3 4
Transport wind..S 5 S 2 SW 2 SW 2 W 2 W 2
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 4 mph late in
the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 9 mph increasing to 13 to 14 mph
late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (82500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (85300
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........21 16 22 33 49 54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10
Temp............62 66 77 85 87 88
RH..............84 78 60 46 42 39
20 ft wind......W 3 N 2 NE 2 E 3 S 5 S 7
20 ft wind gust.5 3 3 5 6 8
Eye level wind..W 2 N 1 NE 1 E 2 S 3 S 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 2 2 3 4 5
Transport wind..W 1 SW 1 SW 9 SW 14 SW 13 S 14
Haines index....5 4 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 41 101 93 103
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR VYGD GOOD VYGD
$$
Forecaster...Skeen
Requested by...William E Perry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413013.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Bill.perry@dof.Virginia.gov