730
FXUS64 KLZK 012328 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
628 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

12Z LIT sounding showed a modest amount of elevated instability,
from roughly 750mb on up. Decaying MCS complex out of OK this
morning pushed out a cloud shield and a few distinct outflow
boundaries, which has resulted in some light showers in a roughly N-
S orientation across the central part of the state. Also at the
moment, radar and visible satellite show a bit of development firing
up in an area of partial clearing between the clouds/precip remnants
over OK, and the previous remnant cloud shield over central AR.

A look at the larger picture shows a very broad midlevel trof
across the western 2/3 of the continental US. Progs show an
embedded shortwave spinning up over TX and rotating up over AR
into the morning hours.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary was located over the
southern half of MO, with a southerly surface flow in place over AR.
By Friday, a cold front will start to slowly push into Arkansas from
the Plains.

With the shortwave approaching the state tomorrow and adequate
moisture in place, there will be a slight risk for excessive
rainfall...which could lead to rises in rivers and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Overall pattern supports unsettled conditions across the forecast
area early in the period before a more tranquil pattern develops
towards the end. Model differences are what you would expect in this
time frame and an overall blend of forecast solutions is preferred.

Long term period begins with a largely amplified pattern in place
characterized by upper level low pressure systems over central
Ontario and just off the British Columbia coast. Pattern places the
region in an active southern stream with a series of systems moving
through for a continuation of rain chances. It must be emphasized
that even with POPS remain in the forecast, rain will not be falling
all the time.

Aforementioned BC system will dive into the four corners over the
weekend and will drag a front through the region increasing the
chances for precipitation in this time frame. This deep strong
system will eventually move off to the northeast but remain over the
northern plains through the remainder of the period. As it moves
into the northern plains, pattern supports a much drier regime but
not until the end of the period.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s through the weekend increasing to the lower 90s by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A few scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will be possible this evening
across the SWRN sections...but expect most areas to remain dry
overnight. Chances for convection return during the morning hrs on
Thu...with scattered SHRA expected. Some isolated TSRA will also
be possible Thu afternoon. Some MVFR CIGs will be possible with
this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  83  64  81 /  10  80  80  50
Camden AR         64  77  64  80 /  10  90  80  70
Harrison AR       62  78  60  78 /  10  80  70  30
Hot Springs AR    63  76  64  81 /  10  90  80  60
Little Rock   AR  65  83  66  83 /  10  80  80  60
Monticello AR     66  83  67  80 /   0  90  90  80
Mount Ida AR      64  76  63  81 /  10  90  70  60
Mountain Home AR  62  82  61  79 /  20  70  70  40
Newport AR        63  84  64  80 /   0  50  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     64  81  65  80 /   0  90  90  80
Russellville AR   63  78  63  82 /  10  80  60  40
Searcy AR         62  83  63  81 /  10  70  80  60
Stuttgart AR      66  83  66  80 /  10  70  90  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...62