888
FXUS64 KLZK 050600
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
100 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Warm/humid conditions will remain in place across the area through
the short term portion of the forecast along with frequent rain
chances.

W-SW H500 flow will be in place overhead through the period with
a notable shortwave expected to lift across the state later
tonight through early Monday morning. Storms associated with this
wave across west Texas this evening are expected merge into a
large TS complex and build east across Arkansas on Sunday. A
brief break in activity is expected Monday before a secondary wave
lifts across the area and additional showers and thunderstorms
should develop near the end of the period.

Overall severe threat should remain low with some possibility for
a few storms to produce gusty winds and hail. Some locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Tuesday and
will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On
Tuesday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the
Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low
pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline
that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong
southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and
appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table
for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will
take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a
slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with
possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday.
Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible
on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast
packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be,
but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all
hazards of severe weather.

Into Wednesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern
Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of
which will include a 70 to 80+ knot jet axis will be present over
the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from
Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer
sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across
Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front
approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low
pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has
outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large
portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe
weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be
a larger area that includes most of the CWA. Expect the possibility
of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will
become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what
the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and
most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather.

THURSDAY:

The cold front that been to our west-northwest finally will track
across the state on Thursday keeping the chance for rain and storms
in the forecast. Expect rain and storms to remain a possibility on
Thursday with a gradual shift in cooler temperatures to begin to
work in behind the cold front which will bring our temperatures on
Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below
normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

FRIDAY/NEXT SATURDAY:

On Friday, the cold front will have completed the journey across the
Natural State; however, the cold front is forecast to begin slowing
down near the southeastern part of the state becoming a stationary
boundary along the I-20 corridor across Louisiana and Mississippi so
I have kept the possibility of POPs across southern Arkansas. On
Saturday, dry conditions are forecast to be present statewide as the
boundary moves well to the south and east of the CWA. Expect cooler
weather overall with temperatures near to below

In relation to temperatures, over the period from Tuesday through
Thursday, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5
to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over
the same timeframe. Then behind the cold front, temperatures on
Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below
normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conds should prevail overnight. Mid/high clouds will stream
into the state from the SW as a new storm system moves across AR
on Sun. SHRA/TSRA will overspread the state from SW to NE
beginning early/mid-morning Sun, continuing through much of the
day. MVFR conds are expected to prevail, with IFR possible around
heavier convection. Precip should come to an end late in the TAF
period from the SW but lowered CIGs will linger a bit longer
associated with low-level stratus surrounding the surface low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  63  83  68 /  90  80  60  30
Camden AR         76  65  83  69 /  90  40  40  10
Harrison AR       68  59  81  66 /  90  50  30  50
Hot Springs AR    72  64  82  67 /  90  50  40  30
Little Rock   AR  74  65  83  69 /  90  70  40  30
Monticello AR     76  66  84  70 /  90  50  30  10
Mount Ida AR      71  63  81  67 / 100  50  40  30
Mountain Home AR  70  60  82  67 /  90  60  40  40
Newport AR        76  64  83  69 /  90  80  60  30
Pine Bluff AR     74  65  84  69 /  90  70  40  20
Russellville AR   71  62  84  67 /  90  50  30  30
Searcy AR         73  63  83  67 /  90  80  50  30
Stuttgart AR      74  65  83  69 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70