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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161813
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
113 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Early this afternoon, skies were clear behind a cold front with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Weak high pressure was
filling in across eastern New Mexico and west Texas.  As a result,
winds should diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Tomorrow, a midlevel shortwave trough over Baja California should
move into northern Mexico.  Meanwhile, surface low pressure should
develop in the lee of the Rockies over southeast Colorado and
northeast New Mexico.  This should help southerly flow to develop
and mid-level cloud cover to increase.  Despite the mid-level cloud
cover, high temperatures look to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The overall warming trend should continue into Thursday as a thermal
ridge should remain in place across west Texas and southern New
Mexico.  850mb temperatures of 23 deg C are anticipated, which would
translate to the low to mid 90s for high temperatures in the
afternoon.  This is 10 to 15 degrees above normal and near-record
high temperatures for mid-April.

Starting early Friday and continuing through the weekend, a pattern
change is expected as a strong cold front should move down from the
Plains and into the region.  Temperatures should drop substantially
into the 70s and 80s on Friday, then into the 50s and 60s for the
weekend.  The bigger story, however, is the increased rain chances,
starting Friday night and continuing until Sunday morning.  Rain
chances will be due to Gulf moisture overrunning the cooler airmass
behind the front across the region and a strong mid-level trough
moving in from the Desert Southwest.  Some elevated thunderstorms
are possible with MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which could
result in locally heavy rainfall.  Timing and amounts could change
over the next couple of days, but overall, it appears we`ll see a
wet and cool pattern for the weekend.

Much drier conditions are expected for the first half of next week
as skies clear out and southerly flow helps warmer temperatures to
return to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Gusty west
winds of 10 to 15 knots will decrease to 10 knots or less this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

In the wake of yesterday`s system, winds today will be
significantly lighter, though remain breezy from late morning
through the afternoon. 20ft winds around 10-20 mph are expected
areawide with intermittently higher gusts, with winds a bit
stronger across the higher elevations. ERCs continue to tick up,
eclipsing the 75th percentile areawide, and the 90th percentile
along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Thus, despite the more
marginal winds today, high ERCs, continued above normal
temperatures, and dry to critically dry fuels will maintain an
increased IA potential. Thus, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect
for Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas this afternoon
and early evening. Conditions will only see marginal improvement
tonight as winds diminish, with poor recovery forecast west of the
Pecos River, and fair to the east. Very dry conditions and above
normal temperatures persist through Thursday, maintaining elevated
fire weather conditions each day for at least portions of the
area, mainly due to ERCs, low RH, and drying fuels, given winds
will remain lighter. A cold front arrives by Friday that will
bring cooler temperatures and potential wetting rains this
weekend, providing a reprieve from heightened fire weather
concerns.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  91  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 51  90  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  93  65  98 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            58  90  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           55  80  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    52  87  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    49  85  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     56  89  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  89  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     54  92  54  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...Daniels