792
FXUS64 KMEG 282033
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the
Mid-South through the late afternoon and early evening hours today.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to advance toward
the Mid-South later tonight, bringing the potential for damaging
winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats. A warm and wet
pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week.
Higher rain chances are forecast on Friday ahead of the next cold
front, with somewhat cooler and drier conditions being expected
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid to upper 70s
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers have
recently popped up on radar that are expected to continue into the
late afternoon/early evening hours, so be sure to bring an
umbrella with you this afternoon and early evening if you have any
outdoor plans.

Early afternoon water vapor analysis depicts that an upper low
pressure system was moving northeastward across portions of the
central and northern Plains. An associated mid-level shortwave
disturbance located across portions of western Texas is forecast
to continue moving northeastward. Ahead of this disturbance,
convective activity is expected to initiate along a remnant QLCS
that is currently located across eastern OK/TX and western AR. The
line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected move eastward
through Arkansas this afternoon and evening, likely approaching
the western periphery of our forecast area later tonight. The
primary threats with this activity appear to be damaging wind
gusts and isolated instances of large hail. The line of storms
should weaken as it crosses the Mississippi River, where
instability looks to wane with eastward extent.

In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is
possible considering the fact that precipitable water values of
around 1.6 inches from the HREF grand ensemble exceed the 90th
percentile value for the date. The CAMs have depicted scattered
showers and thunderstorms could form tomorrow along a remnant
convective outflow from the aforementioned line. Given that PWATs
remain elevated during this period, locally heavy rainfall will
continue to be a concern. The cold front associated with this
system looks approach portions of western and central Arkansas
Monday night and lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday, as the
shortwave exits the Mid-South.

Thereafter, small disturbances in the zonal flow pattern will
result in rain chances remaining elevated through the remainder
of the week. A better chance of precipitation is expected to occur
on Friday as a cold front, associated with a mid-level trough,
moves toward the Mid-South. The passage of the cold front will
bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region with highs in the
upper 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible this afternoon,
mainly along/west of the MS River. Otherwise, patchy MVFR ceilings
will improve with VFR conditions anticipated this afternoon
through the evening. A line of TSRA will approach the Mid-South
overnight. Confidence remains limited that TS will affect
terminals other than JBR given the decreasing instability.
However, no significant changes were made to the previous
forecast. Rain showers, and perhaps a few TS, are expected late
tonight through tomorrow, though coverage Monday afternoon looks
to be more scattered.

South winds will remain gusty throughout the day, gusting to 30
kts at times. Wind speeds will decrease slightly this evening
though a strong low-level jet will promote low-level wind shear
late, mainly at MKL/JBR. Winds Monday will not be as strong as
today.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...MJ