289
FXUS62 KMFL 291158
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
758 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A generally quiet morning weather-wise with isolated Atlantic
showers moving ashore and diminishing as they move across the
peninsula. Just minor tweaks to the forecast to allow the hourly
temperatures and dewpoints to more closely match the observed
trends. No major updates are anticipated through midday. Have a
great Monday morning!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure ridging will begin to break down at the start of
this week with a shortwave trough advecting through the southeast
states Monday night through Tuesday. Modest moisture advection
will occur as this feature causes low level winds to veer slightly
southeasterly. Positive vorticity impulses from the shortwave and
this increase in moisture will create slight chances for rain
showers on Tuesday while shower chances on Monday will largely be
a result of coastal convergence again as gusty easterly winds
continue before decreasing Monday night. This disturbance will be
a rather weak one and there will still be a fairly stable air mass
in place, so overall expecting any shower activity to be widely
scattered. The worst convection will likely form over the interior
areas where sea and gulf breezes collide. Temperatures will mainly
be in the low to mid 80s on Monday and mid to upper 80s on Tuesday
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Long term begins with mid level ridging over the eastern seaboard
gradually migrating into the western Atlantic, while persisting
sfc high pressure keeping a relatively stable air mass over South
Florida through at least the middle of the work week. As the mid
level ridge moves further away from the region, pressure gradients
across the area will relax and allow for the breezy periods to
subside. Meanwhile, low-lvl winds across South Florida gradually
veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest moisture
advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens to low
20s, mainly over the east coast and interior areas. But showers in
general will remain very limited through the long term as
relatively dry/stable air stays in place.

Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach
the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90
inland. Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge
strengthens and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near
the coasts and low 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mainly VFR through the period though brief bouts of sub-VFR are
possible with Atlantic showers. Gusty easterly wind flow should
diminish gradually through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Conditions will continue to improve today and winds and seas
gradually decrease. Calmer conditions should return for the
middle of this week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the middle of the week. Conditions may
start to improve towards the end of the week as onshore flow
decreases, however, the rip currents risk may potentially remain
elevated during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  72  83  73 /  20  20  40  20
West Kendall     83  71  84  69 /  20  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        83  72  83  71 /  20  20  40  20
Homestead        81  71  82  71 /  20  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  73  82  73 /  20  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  81  72  82  72 /  20  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   82  72  83  72 /  20  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  81  69  82  69 /  20  20  40  20
Boca Raton       81  72  81  71 /  20  20  40  20
Naples           85  68  85  70 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG