Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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463 FXUS62 KMFL 290707 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 307 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 High pressure ridging will begin to break down at the start of this week with a shortwave trough advecting through the southeast states Monday night through Tuesday. Modest moisture advection will occur as this feature causes low level winds to veer slightly southeasterly. Positive vorticity impulses from the shortwave and this increase in moisture will create slight chances for rain showers on Tuesday while shower chances on Monday will largely be a result of coastal convergence again as gusty easterly winds continue before decreasing Monday night. This disturbance will be a rather weak one and there will still be a fairly stable air mass in place, so overall expecting any shower activity to be widely scattered. The worst convection will likely form over the interior areas where sea and gulf breezes collide. Temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 80s on Monday and mid to upper 80s on Tuesday across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Long term begins with mid level ridging over the eastern seaboard gradually migrating into the western Atlantic, while persisting sfc high pressure keeping a relatively stable air mass over South Florida through at least the middle of the work week. As the mid level ridge moves further away from the region, pressure gradients across the area will relax and allow for the breezy periods to subside. Meanwhile, low-lvl winds across South Florida gradually veer SE by this time, allowing for a very modest moisture advection to briefly raise chances of rain into the teens to low 20s, mainly over the east coast and interior areas. But showers in general will remain very limited through the long term as relatively dry/stable air stays in place. Afternoon high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to reach the low-mid 80s near the coasts, and upper 80s to around 90 inland. Then by the end of the work week, the mid level ridge strengthens and drives high temperatures into the upper 80s near the coasts and low 90s inland. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A gusty easterly wind flow will continue during the overnight hours and through the day on Monday. Isolated shower activity is possible across the east coast terminals mainly through Monday morning. These showers could produce brief periods of MVFR as they pass through. At KAPF, easterly winds overnight into Monday morning may become more southerly in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze tries to develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Conditions will continue to improve today and winds and seas gradually decrease. Calmer conditions should return for the middle of this week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week. Conditions may start to improve towards the end of the week as onshore flow decreases, however, the rip currents risk may potentially remain elevated during this time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 72 83 73 / 20 20 40 20 West Kendall 83 71 84 69 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 83 72 83 71 / 20 20 40 20 Homestead 81 71 82 71 / 20 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 73 82 73 / 20 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 81 72 82 72 / 20 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 82 72 83 72 / 20 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 81 69 82 69 / 20 20 40 20 Boca Raton 80 72 81 71 / 20 20 40 20 Naples 85 68 85 70 / 10 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657- 676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CWC