National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS66 KMFR 151541
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
841 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...As the upper low to the southeast continues to shift
eastward out of the area and a weak front moves inland to the
north, we will continue to see cloudy and cool conditions through
much of the day. Some light precipitation will continue, mainly
near the coast. and into possibly into portions of Douglas
County. This evening and tonight, expect dry weather and partial
clearing skies from the Cascades west with mostly clear east of
the Cascades. Then dry weather is expected through the week with a
gradual warming trend. Morning low temperatures will be cool to
cold the next few nights though, with Wednesday morning expected
to be the coldest period. Temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning are expected to lower into the lower to mid 30s for
inland valleys west of the Cascades and mid 20s to low 30s for
east side valleys. This will result in areas of frost west of the
Cascades with a potential for some agricultural impacts for these
areas.


&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...A large mix of ceilings currently persists
across the forecast area this morning with some IFR ceilings in
northern California and MVFR ceilings over locations west of the
Cascades. There are also patches of clear skies in Lake and Klamath
Counties. Cloud cover should diminish a bit this morning as the
atmosphere begins to mix out. Soundings show enough moisture to
support plenty of cumulus development around the TAF sites today
with scattered clouds around 2500 to 4500 feet AGL.  Conditions dry
out later this evening into tonight as high pressure builds in.

By tonight,  there will be some mid level ceilings and a low chance
of fog in Roseburg(KRBG) as a stronger surface inversion builds in.

-Smith


&&

.MARINE...Updated 845 AM Monday, April 15, 2024...Conditions
improve for a brief period this morning as the upper level pattern
transitions into a strengthening thermal trough. Satellite shows
some clearing in the southern waters, which suggests this offshore
northerly flow is starting to pick up this morning. However, seas
haven`t responded yet near buoy 27. This pattern will bring another
round of gusty north winds, along with steep to very steep seas,
especially south of Cape Blanco.

The thermal trough is expected to peak Tuesday evening into
Wednesday when strong gusty winds are expected to expand north of
Cape Blanco. There is uncertainty as to how far north this
expansion will occur. So while we only have an advisory in place
from Monday morning through Tuesday morning, we do anticipate
additional headlines beyond Tuesday morning as steep to very steep
seas are likely to continue. Gusty north winds will persist into
Thursday, with conditions expected to improve toward the end of the
week. /BR-y/Smith


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 502 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024/

DISCUSSION...

Low cloud cover is the predominant condition for
this morning with lingering moisture after this weekend`s showers,
and a weak, weakening cold front making its way across northern
Oregon. The low level moisture may be sufficiently deep, and lift
sufficiently strong for a few drizzly showers at the Coos and
Douglas coast until around 11 AM. The low clouds are expected to
linger longest in the Coquille and Umpqua valleys, into this
afternoon. Otherwise, the trend will be for diminishing cloud
cover during the morning.

Model agreement/forecast confidence is high through Friday with
dry conditions (after the slight chance of coastal showers this
morning) and a warming trend of high temperatures expected. By
Thursday and Friday, highs will be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

The main uncertainty, and likely the most impactful aspect of the
forecast will be the extent of overnight cooling. As is typical
in our spring and fall seasons, there will be a wide range between
our inland low and high temperatures. Particularly on Tuesday
through Thursday mornings, widespread freezing temperatures are
expected to start the day across the east side and over the
mountains. But also, patches of frost are likely in west side
valleys, especially away from city centers.

There is better model agreement this morning in timing the next
cold front across our area on Saturday. This looks to be a
seasonably weak front with the highest chance of light rain for
the coast, Douglas County, and northward. This would likely also
bring some modest cooling, sending highs back to around a few
degrees above normal.

Model differences quickly increase for next week, Day 6 onward, but
a trend toward more active, seasonable weather is likely.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5
     AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

CC