Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FNUS73 KMKX 221133
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Parfreys Glen...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
633 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest 20 foot winds of 10 to 15 MPH at ignition, with gusts
to 20 MPH, are expected to quickly increase to 15 to 20 MPH, with
gusts to 30 MPH, this afternoon. Deep mixing heights of 4000 to
6000 feet AGL should occur as well, which will result in relative
humidity values dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range over most
of the area this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal values are
forecast this afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................31 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 11 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 14
                    mph with gusts to around 21 mph increasing to
                    16 to 17 mph with gusts to around 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 31 to 35
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /66900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /66900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (111000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   8   8   18  28  38  49  60  71  78
Weather cov.....                                    SCH
Weather type....                                    RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  49  53  57  59  61  62  63  63  63
RH..............47  44  38  31  27  25  24  24  25  26
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   11  14  16  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.10  14  18  19  21  23  24  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  15  20  23  29  29  31  33  33  35
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10009   21  38  67  111 138 148 158 157 123

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 32
                    mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph shifting to the west 13
                    to 20 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (72200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86  93  91  88  85  76  67  58  44  30  17  16
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  62  60  58  55  55  54  54  52  51  48  48
RH..............29  32  36  39  45  49  52  54  61  66  74  71
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  17  17  16  15  14  12  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  26  26  25  23  21  18  16  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.30  25  23  23  23  23  23  21  20  17  14  13
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100072  32  26  22  19  18  15  13  11  9   6   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph shifting to the northwest around 16 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph increasing to 24 to 28 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (76900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (120200
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    excellent (87300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  16  23  31  38  41  43  45  49  53  57  55
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............47  46  49  52  57  59  61  62  63  63  62  60
RH..............74  73  66  59  51  44  39  36  35  35  38  42
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   10  11  13  14  15  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.11  12  13  14  17  18  20  22  22  23  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 4.3 6.2 8.1 7.2 6.3 5.5 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  13  15  17  18  21  24  28  26  26  25  24
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10005   5   14  26  38  77  130 194 166 146 120 87

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Nate Fayram
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411697.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nathan.fayram@wi.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
