Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
330 FXUS62 KMLB 301458 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1058 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Low-level moistening is occurring this morning, as evidenced by the 10z XMR sounding and GOES-derived PW imagery. As moisture is advected northward through the day, expect continued growth of the cumulus field presently over the peninsula, which will result in isolated showers and a couple of thunderstorms by late afternoon and early evening. The highest coverage of rain and isolated lightning storms continues to be expected as the east coast breeze moves inland and encounters the Lake Okeechobee breeze, in addition to a later collision of the west and east coast sea breezes after 4-5 PM. Any showers or storms that develop will have a tendency to drift back toward the east coast this evening before dissipating. Brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning strikes, and gusty winds are possible in the most organized activity. Modeled 500mb temps are around -10C this afternoon, but with marginal mid-level lapse rates, the threat for small hail appears to be low. Temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s, warming into the upper 80s across the westernmost interior. Gusty winds are expected closer to the coast into the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Mainly VFR conditions exist at the terminals with the exception of VRB/FPR/SUA, where instances of IFR CIGs are associated with coastal -SHRA. VCSH included for many sites this afternoon and TEMPOs may be needed, but confidence remains low. Highest coverage of SHRA/TSRA is possible from SFB/MCO southward along the sea breeze collision after 21-22z. Activity will drift toward coastal terminals (TIX/MLB southward) before dissipating around 03z-04z. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous)...ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower activity this morning, with an increase in moisture over the area. The pgrad continues to weaken, with ESE/SE winds 10-16 kts into this evening, diminishing further overnight 5-11 kts as high pressure over the western Atlc weakens and pushes further seaward. The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon. There will be, again, some nocturnal convection (including ISOLD lightning storm potential) over the local waters, esp Gulf Stream. Seas 4-5 ft will very slowly subside to 3-4 ft areawide by daybreak Wed morning. Wednesday-Friday...Influence of high pressure will keep boating conditions favorable through late week. Winds will vary east to southeast each day remaining below 15 knots while seas diminish from 3-4 ft to 2-3 ft. There is a slight chance for onshore moving showers with the potential for lightning storms over the Gulf Stream waters and also near to the coast with the east coast sea breeze development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Today...Some morning wetting rains, mainly southward and especially along the coast. The ECSB moves inland today with a late day/evening collision over the interior. A few lightning storms cannot be ruled out late today and evening before activity diminishes. As such, a localized fire start from occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. Min aftn RH values fall to 40-45pct well into the interior and 45-60pct closer towards the coast. Variable winds over the interior, with SERLY nearer the coast this morning. Winds transition to ESE (up to 15 mph and gusty) behind the inland moving sea breeze this aftn. Light winds tonight. Wednesday-Saturday...Isolated lightning storms will be possible each day, mainly across the interior as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. While coverage of showers and storms will be overall low, there is the threat for burns ignited from lightning strikes with drying fuels. Min RH values will drop as low as 38% over the far interior, with areas away from the immediate coast falling to 40-43% this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 66 86 67 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 86 68 90 68 / 30 30 20 10 MLB 81 67 84 68 / 30 20 20 10 VRB 81 66 85 66 / 40 30 20 20 LEE 86 67 89 68 / 20 10 20 10 SFB 86 67 89 68 / 30 20 20 10 ORL 87 69 90 69 / 30 20 20 10 FPR 81 65 85 65 / 50 30 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Schaper DECISION SUPPORT...Tollefsen