Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
832 FXUS62 KMLB 271954 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 354 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches this Weekend... ...Hazardous Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal Waters into Sunday.... ...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Today... Current-Sunday...The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows scattered light showers ongoing across the local area this afternoon, especially from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. These showers are moving west- northwest around 20-25 mph. Satellite and local observations show marine stratocu streaming across east central Florida with some high level clouds moving in from the west. As of 3 PM, temperatures are in the low 80s, with a few sites in the upper 70s across the coast. Upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS will remain over the region, while slowly shifting eastward towards the seaboard through the period. Surface high pressure just off the coast of the Carolinas will remain anchored, allowing for onshore flow to persist. Breezy and gusty conditions will continue through tomorrow as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. Easterly winds will be 16-23 mph with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph possible, and up to 35 mph possible along the coast, through this afternoon with speeds at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25mph possible through Sunday. Winds will diminish overnight, especially across the interior, with speeds remaining elevated and gusty closer to the coast tonight. Scattered showers and sprinkles will continue over the Atlantic waters through Sunday, with some of this activity making it to the coast and pushing inland, especially along the coast and from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward. Have added PoP 10-15% across all of ECFL to account for these isolated light showers/sprinkles through the period. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon will persist through tonight before slowly diminishing through the day on Sunday, partly sunny by late afternoon. Temperatures will be around seasonable for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior this afternoon and once again on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s tonight. Monday... Fairly similar weather to our weekend as we kick off the new work week. Ridging aloft wins out with a surface high off the coast of the Carolinas, delivering deep E/SE flow to the boundary layer across East-Central Florida. Shallow moisture in the lowest 200 mb could be enough to spark a few coastal showers but kept rain chances at 20% or less. Otherwise, partly cloudy and breezy at times with low 80s near the coast warming into the mid 80s over the interior. Lows in the low/mid 60s, except near 70 on the barrier islands. Tuesday-Saturday... (modified previous discussion) The remainder of the forecast period will be high and dry as the surface high drifts slightly seaward through midweek but still keeps influence on the local pattern. Onshore winds continue this week, increasing in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. No PoPs in the forecast through next weekend, although could see hints of light onshore moving showers similar to early in the week, but do not have the confidence to include. Temperatures by Tuesday reach the upper 80s inland; still lower 80s at the coast, with a few low 90s making an appearance to begin the month of May over the interior. While it will be warm, lower dewpoints will keep the oppressiveness at bay for at least a bit longer. Lows in the mid/upper 60s persist this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Marine stratocu is stream across the area in the stout onshore flow this afternoon on top of the high level clouds pushing in from the west. This cloud cover will begin to diminish through the day on Sunday, becoming partly sunny by late afternoon. Breezy and gusty onshore flow today and Sunday. Wind speeds this afternoon will be 15-20 KT and gusts to 25- 30 KT possible (up to 35 KT possible along the coast), with speeds at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25mph possible through Sunday . Winds will slowly diminish this evening, however winds will remain elevated and gusty along the coast tonight. Light showers/sprinkles will be possible through Sunday, especially along the coast from Melbourne northward. Have included VCSH for MLB through 00Z, otherwise confidence and coverage not there for inclusion of VCSH. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Current-Sunday... Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 6ft with ESE winds around 18 KT. Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate today as the pressure gradient tightens. Easterly winds of 15-20 KT will increase to 20-25 KT later this afternoon before gradually decreasing late tonight to 15-20 KT and continuing . through Sunday. Seas 4-6ft will build up to 7ft in the offshore waters this afternoon, and 6-7ft in the near shore waters and 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream waters tonight before slowly subsiding to 4-6ft Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the all the Atlantic waters into tonight, with the nearshore Volusia and Brevard waters dropping off at 4AM, which will likely transition exercise caution headlines for those zones. Scattered light showers (PoP 15 percent)will continue through Sunday in the stout onshore flow, with activity moving towards the coast. Monday-Wednesday... Moderate onshore (E/SE) flow continues through at least Tuesday (12-17 KT) before subsiding a bit on Wed (8-12 KT). Seas 3-5 FT nearshore Mon/Tue, up to around 4-6 FT in the Gulf Stream. By Wednesday, seas lessen to 2-4 FT in all areas. Each day, expect a light to moderate chop on inland waterways. There remains a 20% chance for showers through at least Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Sunday-Wednesday... With steady east-to-southeast winds (10-15 mph with occasional gusts to around 20 mph), modified levels of moisture will be transported across the state. However, interior areas that warm more significantly will experience lower afternoon RH readings, dropping to the 35-40% range. So, fire-sensitive weather conditions persist especially away from the coastline as we continue this longer dry stretch of weather across East Central Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 66 79 64 81 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 66 82 64 85 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 67 80 67 82 / 10 10 0 20 VRB 66 81 65 82 / 10 10 0 20 LEE 66 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 66 82 63 85 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 66 83 64 85 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 65 80 64 82 / 10 10 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575. && $$ SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM...Heil AVIATION...Watson