Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250445
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Expect MVFR ceilings to gradually settle in overnight tonight,
with a significant increase in southerly winds prior to daybreak
to around 20kt sustained gusting to 30 to 35kts. This will remain
the case through the remainder of the day Monday. An isolated
shower or two is possible during the day Monday across
southeastern MS into far southwestern AL. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail the rest of today into tonight as
the forecast area sits underneath upper level ridging and surface
high pressure continues to shift east. An upper level trough
begins to approach the region from the west Monday, with a
powerful surface low tracking across the Plains and Midwest states
tonight into Monday. A few shallow warm advection showers are
likely during the day Monday across southeastern MS into far
southwestern AL. Afternoon highs top out in the low to mid 70`s
with lows tonight in the middle to upper 50`s. Multiple hazards
will begin across the area prior to or just after daybreak Monday
with high surf, high rip currents, and strong winds. More details
on this can be found below...

Wind...Strong Cold Air Damming (CAD) to our northeast and the
aforementioned storm system moving in from the west will result in
a very impressive pressure gradient setting up across the area
overnight tonight into Monday, continuing into the short term
period. As this pressure gradient intensifies, expect southerly
winds to respond with sustained winds becoming 20 to 30mph gusting
frequently to 35 to 45mph by mid morning. Winds this strong can
result in some downed trees and hazardous driving conditions on
area bridges. As daytime heating commences, we should start to see
some mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface to
support these wind gusts across the entire forecast area. A wind
advisory will go into effect for the entire area Monday morning
lasting through Tuesday morning.

Coastal Hazards...Strong onshore winds associated with the
increasing pressure gradient will result in a high risk of rip
currents along with rapidly increasing surf. Surf heights could be
as high as 7 to 10 feet, with increasing confidence on the higher
end values warranting an upgrade from a High Surf Advisory to a
High Surf Warning for coastal AL and the FL panhandle late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Life threatening rip currents will be
likely across all area beaches through Wednesday as seas take a
few days to subside. Currently, we are heading into a neap tide
meaning that tidal rangers are rather small across the area.
However, given the strong low level flow we will need to closely
monitor northern Mobile Bay for some coastal flooding. Right now
guidance is just below criteria which makes sense given the neap
tide but if trends in winds continue then we might get close to
seeing some minor coastal flooding. Nonetheless, some overwash may
be possible in our prone barrier islands such as Ft. Pickens,
Dauphin Island, Santa Rosa Island. MM/25 BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A rather potent system is expected to move through Monday night
into Tuesday bringing gusty winds, life threatening beach
conditions and the potential for some strong to severe storms with
damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

Synopsis...A rather impressive surface pressure gradient will
setup across the deep south resulting in strong southerly flow
which will quickly transport moisture northward. Despite a rather
short return time between the last front and this one, the strong
low and deep layer flow should be enough to push moisture well
inland. A cold front and associated pre-frontal trough will
advance through Mississippi Monday evening with a line of storms
quickly progressing eastward overnight and entering our area
around midnight. This line of storms will then move eastward
through Tuesday morning, slowly weakening across our area as the
best upper diffluence associated with the main trough quickly
lifts north of the area. Skies will clear in the wake of the front
Tuesday afternoon as drier northwesterly flow moves in, but some
wrap-around status could linger over south-central Alabama and
northwest Florida through Tuesday night.

Severe thunderstorms...Given the deep layer wind fields, shear
will not be an issue with rather large curved hodographs
supportive of organized storms likely in the form of a squall line
(QLCS). IF a storm can form out ahead of the line then a threat
for a supercell or two could be possible. Given the rather short
return period from our last system and cooler midlevels off to the
west, instability will be paltry at best. In these high shear/
low CAPE (instability) setups we heavily rely on strong upper
level support and lift and this will likely be confined right
along the front likely keeping the supercell potential limited and
the QLCS potential a little higher. As the line enters our area
from the west, there appears to be a small window as it progresses
across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama where
upper level forcing will be sufficient to support a severe threat.
This area has been highlighted by a slight risk given the
slightly higher confidence. Damaging winds will likely be the
primary threat given the strong low level flow. However, strong
curved hodographs with 0-3km bulk shear approaching 50+ knots
would be supportive of QLCS mesovortex development and thus a
potential QLCS tornado threat across southeastern Mississippi.

Confidence in severe storms quickly drops off further east as
storms cross the remainder of our forecast area as the upper
support exits the region. This will likely result in a quick
weakening of storms as they hit the eastern extent of what limited
instability was available. The strong low level flow may be
enough to support a localized damaging wind threat with any
stronger storms but a more widespread severe risk seems rather low
confidence and unlikely once we cross into Alabama Tuesday
morning. Trends may need to be monitored as any uptick in
instability/lift would then support the severe threat extending
further eastward.

Wind....As the upper trough moves in a rather tight pressure
gradient will develop between the upper ridge to our east and the
deepening low to our west. This will allow for rather strong low
level flow to develop across the area beginning Monday afternoon
and lasting overnight. 925 mb winds will intensify to nearly 50
knots just a few thousand feet off the surface. This low level jet
coupled with some level of surface instability despite being the
overnight hours will allow for strong wind gusts to mix down to
the surface. As a result, wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible
late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Winds will not be as
strong on Tuesday as the better low level wind field lifts north
and the gradient weakens. A wind advisory remains in effect for
the entire area for this period as strong winds can result in
downed trees, hazardous driving conditions on area bridges.

Coastal Hazards...With the increasing southerly flow and Gale
candidness offshore, wave heights will rapidly increase late
Sunday night into Tuesday. Expect surf heights to climb to 6 to 9
feet with the potential up to 10 feet. The High Surf Advisory
starting late tonight will be followed by a High Surf Warning by
late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. On top of the high surf, life
threatening rip currents will be likely across all area beaches
through late Wednesday night as seas take a few days to subside.
Currently, we are heading into a neap tide meaning that tidal
rangers are rather small across the area. However, given the
strong low level flow we will need to closely monitor northern
Mobile Bay for some coastal flooding. Right now guidance is just
below criteria which makes sense given the neap tide but if trends
in winds continue then we might get close to seeing some minor
coastal flooding. Nonetheless, some overwash may be possible in
our prone barrier islands such as Ft. Pickens, Dauphin Island,
Santa Rosa Island.

Heavy Rainfall...Despite recent rains the last few weeks, this
system appears to be too quick hitting to be overly concerned
about heavy rainfall. Local flash flood guidance ranges from 2 to
3 inches per hour inland to 3 to 5 inches per hour along the
coast. Given the rather quick progression across the area and the
fact that instability and lift decrease the further east we move;
heavy rainfall and flooding outside of local nuisance flooding
seems rather unlikely at this point. Could a localized area see
some heavy rainfall and maybe flash flooding? Sure, but confidence
in a more widespread threat is rather low at this time. BB/03 /22

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft is expected to build across our forecast
area late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Dry weather
conditions with cool mornings and warm afternoons are anticipated
with this pattern Friday into Saturday. Lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s over inland areas and in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees
along the immediate coast Friday morning should warm into the 70s
by Friday afternoon. A warming trend may commence into the weekend
with highs on Saturday potentially warming into the upper 70s to
lower 80s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the
immediate coast. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Southeasterly flow increases tonight, with strong onshore flow
becoming prevalent Monday through early Tuesday ahead of the next
approaching system. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely,
particularly late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday for the
marine waters and a Gale warning has been issued. Seas will also
build considerably as we head into Monday. A line of strong to
possibly severe storms will move across the marine zones on
Tuesday bringing gusty winds and potential for waterspouts. Winds
will become light to moderate out of the north on Wednesday as the
cold front moves offshore. MM/25 BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  73  64  78  53  75  48  69 /   0  30  80  80  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   60  72  66  75  58  76  51  69 /   0  10  40  90  20  10   0   0
Destin      59  72  67  71  61  76  53  70 /   0   0  20  80  50  10  10   0
Evergreen   52  74  65  75  51  75  45  68 /   0   0  50  90  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  55  71  60  78  48  70  43  67 /   0  30  90  50  10  10  10   0
Camden      52  73  63  73  50  70  44  64 /   0  10  70  90  10  10  10   0
Crestview   52  75  65  75  55  79  47  71 /   0   0  30  80  40  10  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265-
     266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-
     075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>636.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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