Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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730
FNUS74 KMOB 081133
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Stone Forest Trail...USFS
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 CDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 76 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE BURN AREA...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions are expected at the burn site today through
Thursday afternoon. Afternoon relative humidity values remain
well above critical thresholds through the period. Southerly
transport winds continue today between 20 and 25 mph, decreasing
to 10 to 15 mph on Thursday. Surface wind gusts should average
around 25 mph, which will exceed your gust threshold, from late
this morning through this afternoon due to strong heating and deep
mixing. Mixing heights this afternoon will range between 4kft and
4.5kft and again on Thursday afternoon. Afternoon dispersions are
expected to be good today and generally good tomorrow.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog will be possible both
early this morning and again late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Dense fog is not anticipated at this time and
visibilities should remain at or greater than 3 miles.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1006-1219 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 22 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 9 to 10 meters/second.
Dispersion index....58 increasing to 76 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     60     50     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............84     88     89     89
RH..............74     63     57     57
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..12     14     15     15
20 FT wind gust.18     23     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   4000   4000   3700
Mix hgt (m).....1010   1220   1220   1130
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.20     21     21     22
Trans wind dir..S      S      S      S
Trans spd (m/s).9      9      9      10
Dispersion idx..58     60     76     74
LVORI...........3      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...183-1128 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 5 to 9 meters/second.
Dispersion index....74 decreasing to 14.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........51     66     84     77     76     83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............86     81     79     76     76     75
RH..............65     77     85     94     94     94
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..13     10     10     10     9      7
20 FT wind gust.22     20     18     18     16     13
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   900    900    1000   1000   1100
Mix hgt (m).....1130   270    270    300    300    340
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      SSW    SSW
Transp wind spd.21     17     16     17     16     14
Trans wind dir..S      S      S      S      SSW    SSW
Trans spd (m/s).9      8      7      8      7      6
Dispersion idx..74     16     16     17     16     14
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...213-1250 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 5 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....12 increasing to 49.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........79     72     65     65     60     50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............75     76     83     87     90     90
RH..............94     97     77     68     62     60
20 FT wind dir..SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
20 FT wind spd..8      8      9      10     10     12
20 FT wind gust.14     13     14     15     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1700   3100   3800   3800   3300
Mix hgt (m).....210    520    940    1160   1160   1010
Transp wind dir.S      SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
Transp wind spd.12     12     14     15     14     14
Trans wind dir..S      SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW    SSW
Trans spd (m/s).5      5      6      7      6      6
Dispersion idx..12     26     40     44     48     49
LVORI...........6      4      3      2      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Jonathan Howell (31)
Requested by...Cliff Willis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413454.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL clifton.willis@usda.gov