Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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Spot Forecast for Fuji Rx...USDA Hiawatha NF
National Weather Service Marquette MI
755 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...High pressure currently over Upper Michigan will
give way to a clipper low pressure system this afternoon, bringing in
some showers to the spot forecast area tonight. Mixing this afternoon
will result in min RHs around 30%. While confidence is high for light
winds, the forecasted wind direction is not as certain. High pressure
earlier today plays part of that role in uncertainty, but the lake
breezes off Lake Michigan and Lake Superior will complicate things
this afternoon. These lake breezes will result in some increased
cloud cover and may result in a few sprinkles after noon. They will
also help elevate RHs by bringing in some moisture off the water.
Chances for showers increase tonight, continuing into Saturday as
the clipper system makes its way through. This will also yield RH
recovery to near 80%. Gradual clearing is expected Saturday afternoon
with higher min RHs in the low 60s to upper 50s and northerly winds
with gusts up to 15 mph.


Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Dewpoint............34 decreasing to 30 in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest up to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300 ft AGL
                    increasing to 7000-8100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (5) at ignition. Max...good (395.0)
                    increasing to good to excellent (561.0-637.0)
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......18 increasing to 21 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 17 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........34     24     30     53     52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............44     51     59     59     60
Dewpoint........36     33     31     30     31
RH..............75     50     35     33     33
33 ft wind......N 3    E 2    W 5    W 5    NW 7
20 ft wind......N 2    E 2    W 4    W 4    NW 6
Wind gust.......4      5      6      6      7
Mix hgt (ft)....300    4800   7900   7900   7800
Haines index....4      5      5      4      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.1      5      16     40     63
Ceiling (kft)...18     21     21     17     19

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 41.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    south around 5 mph overnight, then becoming
                    light after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 6 mph shifting to the
                    south around 4 mph overnight, then becoming
                    light after 3 am.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL decreasing to 100-800 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (83.0-544.0) decreasing to poor
                    (11.0) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......21 increasing to 24 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 17 late in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 7.1 overnight, then decreasing
                    to 4.1 late.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........45  39  32  44  57  70  70  70  71  75  79  83
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  56  54  51  48  46  44  44  44  43  42  42
Dewpoint........32  33  34  34  34  34  35  35  36  36  36  35
RH..............37  41  46  53  59  65  69  72  75  76  77  78
33 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   E   E   E
33 ft wind spd..7   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4   4   2   2   2
Wind gust.......8   8   8   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.54  38  19  8   4   2   1   2   2   2   1   2
Ceiling (kft)...21  22  24  20  17  13  12  11  9.8 8.4 7.1 5.7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 53.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Dewpoint............37.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
20-foot winds.......North winds up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (24.0-233.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......4.1 decreasing to 2.2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........80     74     77     73     61     54
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     40     40     20     20     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............41     43     46     48     50     51
Dewpoint........36     38     39     39     39     38
RH..............82     81     75     71     66     61
33 ft wind......NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   N 6    N 6    NW 8
20 ft wind......NE 2   NE 2   NE 2   N 5    N 5    NW 6
Wind gust.......6      6      6      8      8      11
Mix hgt (ft)....300    700    1200   1400   1400   1600
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.2      8      19     23     17     18
Ceiling (kft)...4.9    3.3    2.6    2.3    2.4    3.0

$$
Forecaster...Jablonski
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413643.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Patricia.carrick@usda.gov