Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions:
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FNUS73 KMQT 301323
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Raco Pile Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
923 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...As a low pressure leaves Lake Superior today, the
slight light rain chances end over the Raco area. Nevertheless, the
light showers may (20% chance) stubbornly hold on until the evening
hours as additional forcing from Lower Michigan moves through. Warmer
temperatures are expected today and Wednesday, although highs are
still projected to only get into the 50s. As for RHs, given the
recent rainfall and cloud cover overhead, min RHs are only expected
to get down into the mid 70 percents today and mid 60 percents
Wednesday; expect a full RH recovery tonight. Fairly light winds from
the southwest to northwest are expected today through this evening
before calming down by midnight tonight. Late tonight, ahead of
another low pressure system lifting towards western Lake Superior,
expect the winds to begin picking up from the southeast. The winds
continue to pick up from the southeast until the cold front passes
Raco around noon Wednesday, when they will come from the west behind
the cold front`s passage.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog late in the
morning. Slight chance of rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 53.
RH..................90 percent at ignition...Min 74 percent.
Dewpoint............42.
33-foot winds.......Winds southwest at 7 mph at
ignition...otherwise southwest winds 6 to 7 mph
shifting to the northwest 7 to 8 mph in the
afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 6 mph becoming northwest
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1100-2800
ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (126) at ignition. Max...fair (231.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......0.3 increasing to 1.0.
TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........91 91 90 90
Weather cov.....PATCHY S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....FOG RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............46 49 50 49
Dewpoint........43 44 42 41
RH..............90 82 75 74
33 ft wind......SW 7 NW 8 NW 8 NW 8
20 ft wind......SW 6 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6
Wind gust.......11 10 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 2000 2800 2600
Haines index....2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.13 20 22 23
Ceiling (kft)...0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............38.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 8
mph overnight.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 6 mph early in the
evening becoming light, then becoming southeast
up to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......200-2100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (12.0-188.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....None.
Ceiling (kft).......1.4 increasing to 2.7 late in the evening, then
increasing to 3.7 late in the evening
increasing to 4.7 late in the evening
increasing to 5.7 decreasing to 4.5 after 3 am.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........87 76 66 56 47 64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............47 44 41 38 37 36
Dewpoint........40 39 38 38 37 36
RH..............77 83 91 98 100 100
33 ft wind......NW 7 NW 7 S 2 SE 5 SE 5 SE 8
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 S 2 SE 4 SE 4 SE 6
Wind gust.......10 10 5 5 10
Mix hgt (ft)....2100 1600 700 200 300 200
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.19 14 6 2 2 1
Ceiling (kft)...1.4 1.7 3.7 5.3 6.4 5.1
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
likely in the morning, then slight chance of
rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 65 percent.
Dewpoint............40 increasing to 44 in the late morning and
afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the
west around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 11 mph shifting to the
west around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2600-3000 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (18.0-317.0).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.09 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......3.6 decreasing to 2.8 early in the morning,
then decreasing to 1.5 early in the morning
decreasing to 1.1 late in the morning
decreasing to 0.6 increasing to 0.9 early in
the afternoon increasing to 1.1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........77 86 88 82 69 65
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40 70 60 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............38 41 46 50 53 56
Dewpoint........38 41 43 45 46 46
RH..............100 99 89 83 78 67
33 ft wind......SE 10 SE 10 SE 14 S 14 S 14 W 12
20 ft wind......SE 8 SE 8 SE 11 S 11 S 11 W 10
Wind gust.......14 14 18 17 17 13
Mix hgt (ft)....200 300 900 1300 1500 2600
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.2 5 21 30 26 32
Ceiling (kft)...3.6 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.4
$$
Forecaster...TAP
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412773.0/MQT
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patricia.carrick@usda.gov