891
FXUS63 KOAX 170919
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
419 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures today with highs near 90. A bit cooler on
  Saturday though dry weather continues.

- Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning early Sunday and
  lasting through at least Tuesday. Severe weather will be
  possible at times, especially Sunday evening and Monday.

- The repeated rounds of storms may bring a threat of flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

We have mostly clear skies across the area this morning with
temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds are out of the
south but fairly light. We`ll see increasing winds out of the
southwest through this afternoon with temperatures jumping up
into the upper 80s to around 90 this afternoon as a shortwave
passes through ramping up low-level winds. Increased southerly
flow and little-to-no cloud cover should allow for excellent
mixing which could allow temperatures to even overachieve, so
have leaned on the higher side of guidance for temperatures this
afternoon.

Saturday morning we`ll see a cold front move across the Upper
Plains as an upper-level shortwave trough moves across the
region. The southwesterly flow regime ahead of this system will
keep us too dry for any precipitation with this cold front, but
we will see high temperatures drop down into the upper 70s to
mid 80s and winds shift to northwesterly.

The shortwave trough on Saturday sets us up for a very active
pattern going into early next week with a shift to a
southwesterly upper-level flow regime. This will bring a strong
system through Sunday, with another system on it`s tail moving
through on Monday. We see a ramp up of southerly moisture
advection out ahead of these systems starting across central
Nebraska overnight Saturday night into early Sunday. The low-
level jet expands precip chances eastward by Sunday morning,
with chances for strong to severe storms Sunday evening as we
see a dry line move across the area. Monday we see the surface
low move through, likely just to our southeast, which may limit
the severe potential to far southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa.

Tuesday temperatures will be a bit cooler as we see a transition
from northerly flow behind the Monday front to easterly flow out
ahead of the next shortwave. We see the associated surface low
track either across eastern Nebraska or northwest Missouri. A
more northerly track of the surface low would mean another
chance for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday, the ensembles start to diverge but we continue to see
low chances for showers and storms. We keep these low PoPs and
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s through Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies throughout
the period and light southerly winds becoming southwesterly
Friday morning. Gusts will increase to near 25 kts by Friday
afternoon. A few passing mid and high clouds are possible Friday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Kern