Text Products for FWS Issued by OAX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FNUS73 KOAX 181133
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Center Island...USFWS
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 CDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Off and on light rain will continue through the rest of this
morning. Rain won`t completely move out of the area until around
noon. Surface winds will stay out of the north or northwest today
around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Skies will clear out
this afternoon allowing mixing up to 5000 to 6000 feet, with
transport winds around 25 mph. With temperatures cooler, even
though a dry air mass moves in behind this system humidity only
drops to 35 to 50 percent this afternoon.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 25%

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 35%

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning.
Temperature.........44 at forecast start...Max 57.
RH..................89 percent at forecast start...Min 38 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 9 to 11 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 15 to 19 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 15 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise North winds 13 to 16 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 5400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 21 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /37200 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /109400 knot-ft/.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at forecast start...max
                    3.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96  97  98  97  90  81  78  65  59  28  10
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Temp............44  44  44  45  46  47  50  52  53  54  56
RH..............89  89  86  79  68  63  56  48  45  42  38
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  13  13  13  12  12  13  14  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.20  18  18  18  17  17  18  18  18  19  18
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.11  10  10  10  9   9   10  11  11  11  11
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  14  14  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.19  16  16  16  15  15  16  18  19  19  19
Surface wnd gst.25  23  23  22  21  21  22  22  23  24  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.26  25  24  23  22  21  22  23  23  25  26
GFDI............3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   7   7
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100037  38  40  43  49  57  67  85  101 109 101

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 34.
RH..................Max 75 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 11 mph shifting to the
                    west around 4 mph overnight, then becoming
                    light after 3 am.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds around 18 mph decreasing to
                    west 6 to 14 mph in the evening and overnight,
                    then becoming light after 3 am.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 15 mph decreasing to 5
                    to 12 mph in the evening and overnight, then
                    becoming light after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 26 mph decreasing to 7 to 16
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    west around 7 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (83700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................3.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........11     40     32     21     23     43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............54     51     43     40     37     36
RH..............39     50     55     62     67     69
20 ft wind......NW 14  NW 9   NW 7   NW 6   W 5    W 3
20 ft wind gust.18     14     11     8      6      5
Eye level wind..NW 11  NW 7   NW 5   NW 4   W 4    W 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.14     11     8      6      5      4
Surface wind....NW 18  NW 11  NW 9   NW 8   W 6    W 4
Surface wnd gst.23     18     14     10     8      6
Mix hgt (ft)....5200   600    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 26  NW 16  NW 15  N 12   NW 9   W 7
GFDI............6      3      2      1      1      0
Haines index....3      4      4      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100084     42     7      2      3      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 4 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    up to 8 mph early in the morning shifting to
                    the around 8 mph.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds around 6 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    6 to 14 mph early in the morning shifting to
                    the 13 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming west 5 to
                    12 mph early in the morning shifting to the
                    northwest around 12 mph.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph increasing to 20 to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (71700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (107800
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
GFDI................3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........26     22     29     35     47     65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............35     36     48     53     55     57
RH..............69     69     44     35     31     30
20 ft wind......SW 5   W 5    W 6    W 9    NW 11  NW 11
20 ft wind gust.6      7      10     14     17     17
Eye level wind..SW 4   W 4    W 4    W 7    NW 8   NW 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.       5      8      10     13     13
Surface wind....SW 6   W 6    W 8    W 11   NW 14  NW 14
Surface wnd gst.7      9      13     17     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2800   5900   7500   7800
Transport wind..W 7    W 10   W 16   W 21   W 21   W 21
GFDI............1      1      2      4      6      6
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10000      9      39     108    150    141

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 50s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest
winds around 11 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
South winds around 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Darrah
Requested by...Sam Vanourney
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411307.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Sam_vanourney@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
