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000
FXUS64 KOHX 190701
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
201 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Regional radar mosiac imagery showing a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving southeastward across W TN presently with
some convection noted across Land Between the Lakes Region and
across southeastern portions of mid state region as the top
of the hour approaches. Expecting convection to continue its
decreasing strength trend, and although a strong thunderstorm
or two can not totally be ruled out, not expecting any organized
severe thunderstorm potential as of this time. Latest CONSshort
model initialized well and lean toward through remainder of early
morning hours today. In general, look for convection to become
more scattered in nature as it continues moving southeastward
with eventual movement of surface front to our northwest into
mid state region this morning, slowly push into far southeastern
locations by early afternoon hours, and continue its push
southeastward as remainder of afternoon hours progress. Expect
most locations to experience showers and thunderstorms this
morning, with shower and thunderstorms exiting to our south
and east by mid afternoon hours. Total rainfall amounts today
will generally range from around 0.25" to around 0.80." Highs
today across northwest portions of our area will be in upper
60s with mid 70s still prevailing across locations near TN/AL
Border Region.

Expecting per continued push southeastward of surface cold front
into deep south, influences of southern Canadian high pressure
influences building southeastward into the central plains, for dry
conditions to prevail tonight through Saturday afternoon with
developing zonal flow aloft ushering in additional cloudiness
at times. Lows tonight will range from mid 40s north and Upper
Cumberland Region to lower 50s near TN/AL Border Region. Highs
on Saturday will start of cold air advection influences from our
north being felt with highs seasonally cool generally ranging
in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Continuance of quasi zonal flow aloft with moisture advection
into mid state region from our south will result in the
possibility of isolated to scattered showers across our area
on Sunday. Brunt of cold air advection behind surface frontal
passage that will occur today will be felt on Sunday, with highs
quite seasonably cool, ranging upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s
Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows Sunday night as dry conditions
return will be seasonably cold also, ranging upper 30s to lower
40s, with mid 30s even possible Cumberland Plateau Region. Mid
state will remain dry through Tuesday morning with one more day
of seasonally cool highs and lows on Monday afternoon and Monday
night respectively. A warmup will again commence on Tuesday ahead
of a surface cold frontal passage that will move northwest to
southeast across our area as Tuesday night progresses bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances once again to our area Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. That frontal passage will
usher in another round of cold air advection to mid state region
on Wednesday, but not as significant as first part of week, with
highs on Wednesday generally ranging upper 60s to lower 70s. As
surface high pressure influences shift eastward, more of a
southerly return flow pattern will begin to develop, with shower
chances returning to mid state region on Thursday with highs near
seasonal normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A broken line of showers and storms along a cold front continues
to approach from the west. This activity will move west-to-east
through the area after 06Z and through the early morning. These
storms should weaken as they move through Middle TN, but SHRA is
at least likely at each TAF site. Ceilings will also lower with
widespread MVFR to IFR conditions likely tonight with improvement
not expected until closer to 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  49  68  47 /  30  10  10  20
Clarksville    68  45  65  45 /  10   0  10  20
Crossville     72  46  63  42 /  70  10  10  20
Columbia       73  49  67  45 /  30  10  20  30
Cookeville     71  47  63  44 /  60  10  10  20
Jamestown      71  45  63  41 /  70  10  10  20
Lawrenceburg   73  50  66  47 /  30  10  20  40
Murfreesboro   73  48  67  45 /  30   0  10  30
Waverly        68  47  66  45 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Clements