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000
FXUS64 KOHX 221039
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
539 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Chilly morning across Middle Tennessee this morning as a 1026mb
surface high pressure area settles over Arkansas, with current
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clear skies, light
winds, and dewpoints in the low to mid 30s will allow lows to
reach the mid 30s to around 40 by sunrise - with fairly
widespread frost anticipated. No changes were made to the frost
advisory, although it is possible a few of our typically colder
spots may even touch the freezing mark. Despite the chilly start,
a rapid warmup is anticipated today thanks to sunny skies and the
dry airmass in place, with highs reaching the 60s areawide.

Tonight, the surface high will shift southeast of our neck of the
woods, with southwesterly winds returning at the surface and aloft
while high level clouds also increase. This will keep lows
several degrees warmer than this morning in the upper 30s to mid
40s. Some patchy frost is possible in our eastern counties, but it
should remain isolated and no advisory is planned. Tuesday looks
even warmer than today as southwesterly winds continue to
strengthen ahead of a cold front sinking southward across the
Midwest, with highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cold front will continue sinking southward through the midstate
Tuesday night, with scattered showers anticipated especially over
our northern half. However, weak moisture return ahead of the
front will keep activity scattered, and have undercut the
seemingly too high NBM pops. Front will stall to our south
Wednesday and Thursday with additional scattered showers and
storms possible along the boundary, but this activity should also
remain to our south both days. Despite this being a cold front,
temperatures will not cool down much if any on Wednesday and
actually warmup some on Thursday. By Friday, the boundary will
zoom back north as a warm front with a few showers and storms
possible along it, and highs will reach the 80s again in parts of
the cwa.

For the upcoming weekend, Middle Tennessee will be located
between the subtropical jet stream stretching from northern
Mexico into the Midwest, and a strengthening high pressure ridge
aloft over the southeastern CONUS. This pattern will allow for a
big warmup with highs reaching well into the 80s for Saturday and
Sunday. With the main storm track remaining to our west and north
across the Plains and Great Lakes, GFS appears too aggressive
with precip chances and have kept pops closer to the drier ECMWF
and NBM. Rain chances will finally increase early next week as
the upper ridge breaks down and the persistant H5 trough over the
west is able to shift eastward. As of now, does not appear to be
any strong or severe storm concerns with the main focus for severe
weather in the extended remaining across the Plains and Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will remain
light, gradually becoming southerly by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  43  74  56 /   0   0  10  30
Clarksville    66  41  72  54 /   0   0  10  40
Crossville     61  38  69  50 /   0   0   0  30
Columbia       66  41  74  54 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     61  41  69  52 /   0   0   0  40
Jamestown      61  39  70  50 /   0   0   0  40
Lawrenceburg   65  41  72  54 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   66  39  74  54 /   0   0   0  30
Waverly        66  43  72  54 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Clements