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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

000
FNUS71 KOKX 170912
FWSOKX

Spot Forecast for Sarnoff Block D RX...NYS-DEC
National Weather Service New York NY
512 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

631-924-0383

.DISCUSSION...
An ENE wind early this morning is expected to shift to the ESE by
10 am and SE by early this afternoon (1 pm or thereafter).


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely late
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /23600 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  45  61  77  76  75  86  92
Weather cov.....                CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   30  30  30  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  55  56  56  55  55  54  53
RH..............54  53  51  51  53  53  54  59
20 FT wind dir..090 100 110 110 120 120 120 120
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.11  12  12  13  13  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6
Transp wind dir.090 100 110 120 120 120 130 130
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  21  21  22  22  21
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14  19  21  23  23  24  22  19
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the evening, then rain showers early
                    in the evening. Rain showers likely overnight.
CWR.................60 percent increasing to 80 percent early in
                    the evening, then decreasing to 70 percent late
                    in the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east
                    around 22 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  93  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60  60  80  80  80  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  49  47  47  47  46  46  46  45  45  45  45
RH..............63  68  79  83  83  89  89  89  96  96  96  93
20 FT wind dir..120 120 130 120 120 120 110 110 110 100 100 100
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  11  13  14  14  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.140 150 160 150 130 120 120 110 110 110 100 100
Transp wind spd.18  15  12  12  13  14  15  16  18  18  21  22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  6   3   6   10  13  12  8   4   3   3   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the morning and early afternoon, then chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................70 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 50.
RH..................Min 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 26 to 35 mph increasing to 32 to 38 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (58100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  95  95  92  94  94  92  93  94  93  93  92
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70  70  60  60  60  60  60  60  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  44  46  46  48  48  48  48  48  48  47  47
RH..............96  96  89  89  80  80  77  77  77  77  76  76
20 FT wind dir..100 100 090 090 090 090 090 090 080 080 070 070
20 FT wind spd..10  11  12  12  14  15  15  15  14  13  12  11
20 FT wind gust.18  18  19  20  21  22  22  22  22  21  20  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
Transp wind dir.100 100 100 100 100 100 100 090 090 090 100 100
Transp wind spd.26  31  35  37  38  38  38  37  36  36  33  32
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   3   6   16  31  45  50  51  52  54  57  58
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...JP
Requested by...Bryan Gallagher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411179.0/OKX
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryan.gallagher@dec.ny.gov