484
FXUS66 KOTX 102333
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
433 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of
the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in
the lower 90s. Breezy winds will occur across portions of central
and eastern Washington Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern for
early next week is uncertain, however a cooling trend is likely
with increasing clouds, and a small chance of precipitation and
thunderstorms for the Cascade Crest, northeast Washington, and the
northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Mostly clear skies and temperatures in
the upper 70s to around 90 as a ridge moves into the region.
Winds will be about 10 mph or less on Saturday with the exception
of some Cascade gaps where winds could near 15 mph. Sunday the
ridge begins to shift east as a trough and associated cold front
approach the region. We will see an increase in southwest to
westerly winds across the region, especially across the Cascade
gaps, over the Columbia Basin and into the Palouse and Spokane
area. Currently the best area to see gusts 20 to 25 mph will be
across the southern Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee Valley, Waterville
Plateau and across the western Columbia Basin with a 70 to 85%
chance of occurrence.

*Impacts: People not yet acclimated to these warm temperatures
 could experience heat related issues if outside this weekend.
 Also, river and lake temperatures remain cold...in the 40s to low
 50s. Hypothermia and loss of muscle control can set in quickly
 when swimming in cold waters. Rivers are also running swiftly.

Monday through Friday: The trough moves into the region, bringing
an increase in clouds, cooler temperatures and continued breezy
conditions. Winds will be more widespread breezy with a 55-75%
chance of gusts to 25 mph across much of the region except for
northeastern WA. There is even a 50-60% chance of gusts to 30 mph
for portions of central WA. Ensemble guidance is showing afternoon
showers across northeast WA and north ID. The NBM was showing
this, but extended it out a bit further in area. 500 mb temps will
be cooling throughout the day and coupled with lift from the front
and orographics and an increase in moisture, we could see some
thunderstorms across this area as well.

The remainder of the week remains a fair bit uncertain. Is the
ridge going to pop back up? Will it be further west? Will there be
a trough? Daytime temps will still be slightly above average with
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. And precipitation chance are
small at this time, about 20-30% with the best chances at the
crest of the Cascades, along the Canadian border and across
portions of N ID. We could see breezy winds at times during the
afternoon. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Widespread VFR conditions through the TAF period coming
with high confidence under high pressure aloft. All winds will be
10kts or less. Saturday afternoon we will see an increase in
winds, but nothing significant.  Infrequent gusts near 15 mph
expected between 1300-1800 pdt with peak afternoon mixing.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is very high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF
sites given the stable weather pattern aloft. Main uncertainty is
with wind gusts Saturday afternoon which could be as high as 18
mph. General winds Saturday afternoon will become more southwest.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        49  81  50  81  52  73 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  48  78  50  78  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        49  77  51  77  51  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       54  85  56  86  55  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       42  82  44  83  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      44  77  48  78  50  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  30
Kellogg        49  75  51  76  52  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     51  88  50  88  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  87  54  85  56  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           49  88  50  88  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$