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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181207
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
707 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will again reach the lower to middle 80s
  this afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with
  numerous showers and storms late this afternoon through this
  evening. Severe storms are expected, with damaging winds as
  the main concern, but large hail and tornadoes are also
  possible.

- There will be a significant cool down Friday and through the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A weak surface boundary remains draped west to east across the
PAH forecast area early this morning. A surface low, currently
over southwest Kansas, will quickly move east-northeast today
into tonight, moving into northern Indiana by 06z Friday. The
low will lift the boundary currently across our region north as
a warm front today. Breezy south winds south of the front will
help temperatures again reach the lower to middle 80s this
afternoon, with dew points climbing into the lower to middle
60s. Isolated to scattered convection is possible by early this
afternoon across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois,
with chances spreading east across the rest of the PAH fa
through the late afternoon hours. As the low moves into Illinois
by this evening, the trailing cold front will move just west of
our area. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop
along and ahead of the front, moving across the PAH fa from
approximately 23z-06z. The RAP and GFS show MU CAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg and surface LIs of -4 to -8 across southeast
Missouri this afternoon, as well as along the cold front this
evening. There are model differences in just how much convection
we will see across the area this afternoon, but what does
develop will have the potential to become strong to possibly
severe. We will also have the potential for severe storms with
the line late today into this evening. SPC has included the
entire PAH forecast area in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms.

Convection will end from northwest to southeast late tonight.
Rainfall totals will generally be in the three-quarter to one
and a quarter inch range, with localized higher amounts
possible.

A significant cool down will follow the cold front. High
temperatures will go from around 15 degrees above normal today,
to several degrees below normal Friday and Saturday, and near 10
degrees below normal Sunday. Low temperatures by Saturday night
and Sunday night will be around 10 degrees below normal, which
will mean readings dropping into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Some models try to lift the cold front back north toward our
region into the weekend, and the NBM produces small chances of
showers across our southern counties late Friday night into
Saturday evening. Although we will most likely stay dry, will
leave slight chance PoPs in for now.

Winds shift back to the south Monday, and we will see a warming
trend through mid week. Models show a surface low moving north
of the region Tuesday, dragging a cold front through the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This will give the PAH fa chances of showers and a few storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 707 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Low MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys at KCGI/KPAH will
lift/improve and become scattered by 17z. Isolated shra/tsra
possible at KCGI/KPAH/KMVN after 20z, but held off including in
TAFs until 23z when better chances arrive at all sites. Line of
strong to possibly severe storms expected to move across TAF
sites from east to west from 23z-06z, with very gusty winds
possible along with MVFR and brief IFR conditions. Winds from
the southeast at 5-10kts will become south at 10-15kt by 18z,
shifting to the west and northwest this evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST