Text Products for ESF Issued by PBZ

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FGUS71 KPBZ 071402
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
902 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024

...Flood Potential is near normal the next two weeks...

...Flood Potential is near normal to slightly below normal through
spring...

The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and
Pennsylvania.

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
Over the last two weeks, observed rainfall was as low as the 0.50
inch range in the western Ohio Valley (eastern Illinois, northern
Indiana, western Kentucky) and as high as around three inches in
portions of the central and eastern Ohio Valley. Most areas fell
in the 1.50 to 2.50 inch range. This falls in the 50-175% range of
normal. There were no large areas of extreme dry or extreme wet.

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Soil moisture is currently near normal across a large portion of
the basin. Most soil moisture is in the 20-70th percentile range.
Normal is considered in the 30-70th percentile range. Areas of
eastern Illinois are on the drier side of normal while eastern
areas such as western Pennsylvania and eastern Kentucky are on
the wetter side of normal.

State rankings:
Ohio - Mostly near normal
Western Pennsylvania - Slightly above normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
The past seven-day streamflows have been slightly below normal in
Indiana and eastern Illinois. They have been near normal across
the rest of the Ohio Valley with some slightly above normal
averages in West Virginia.

State rankings:
Ohio - Near normal
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal


For more information please visit:
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio
Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Ohio River flows are currently slightly below normal.

Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above
normal and below 100% are below normal.

Pittsburgh - 80%
Huntington - 80%
Cincinnati - 90%
Louisville - 100%
Evansville - 100%
Smithland  - 90%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
There is no snowpack in the basin.

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
There is no ice in the basin.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
During the upcoming weekend (March 9-10) a frontal system will
bring rainfall across the entire Ohio Valley. Rains will result
in some significant rises, mostly in bank, but some minor flooding
is possible in northwest Ohio, in Indiana and in southeastern
Illinois. These are normal conditions for March.

However, behind this system the region is likely to see 5-6 days
of nearly dry weather, with normal rainfall continuing through
the end of the month. Additionally, there are above normal
temperatures, above normal soil temperatures and decreased runoff
because of the greening up of grasses and leaf out that is running
10-20 days ahead of normal. Therefore, the flood risk is
considered close to normal for the middle of March with some minor
flooding in typical flood prone areas.

OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
River flows over the next 2 weeks will be near normal on the upper
and middle Ohio River but slightly below normal on the lower Ohio
River.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above
normal and values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 110%
Huntington - 100%
Cincinnati - 100%
Louisville - 100%
Evansville - 80%
Smithland  - 80%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please
visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc


90-DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK...
The outlook continues to favor normal to slightly below normal
flood risk through spring which means minor to isolated moderate
floods are possible. After a period of wettness in the first half
of March, most forecast data suggests a return to normal or
slightly below normal rainfall from late March through April. It
appears the heaviest rains in the next 2-3 months will fall over
parts of Tennessee, Kentucky into Virginia and West Virginia.

STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major
possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early
spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological
conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The
outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water
resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous
water watch. This can be found at
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir
levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice
conditions and future precipitation.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
