Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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205 FXUS65 KPSR 041207 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 507 AM MST Sat May 4 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... After another day of above normal temperatures today, a weather system passing by to the north will help to bring cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week. The system will also lead to widespread breezy to windy conditions today across southeast California and areawide on Sunday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal for one more day ahead of an approaching Pacific low now moving into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Expect highs today very similar to yesterday with readings mostly topping out in the lower 90s across the lower deserts to as high as 95 degrees. The approaching weather system will also increase the gradient across the western deserts by this afternoon leading to increasing winds and wind gusts likely reaching advisory level (40 mph) over portions of southeast California by late this afternoon. As the Pacific low moves inland across northern California into northern Nevada tonight, it will start to weaken while also bringing in some high level cloudiness through the Desert Southwest. A dry cold front is also forecast to move through southern California by Sunday morning with the front attempting to move through much of Arizona, but it will likely somewhat wash out as the system continues to weaken as it moves through Utah and northern Arizona. Cooler temperatures will be realized on Sunday, especially over the western deserts where readings will only top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but the Phoenix area will still easily reach into the mid 80s. Windy conditions will also impact the region areawide on Sunday with gusts across the Arizona lower deserts mostly between 30-35 mph to as high as 40-45 mph across southeast California and over portions of the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix. The weather pattern for a good portion of next week should see a large trough set up from the Plains States through the Pacific Northwest with the southern fringe of the trough setting up over our region. This will allow for several days of seasonably dry westerly zonal flow over the Desert Southwest with heights aloft hovering near seasonal averages. As a result, temperatures will recover fairly slow into next week, eventually warming back into the normal range by around Tuesday or Wednesday. NBM forecast temperatures show highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s from Tuesday through Thursday before warming a bit more by next weekend as ensemble guidance shows a ridge potentially building in from the west. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1207Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the TAF period under extended periods of clear skies and at times FEW-SCT high clouds mostly aoa 20 kft. Winds will follow a similar pattern to that of the last 24 hours, with current E/SE winds veering out of the south over the morning and potentially going VRB. SW`rly directions become favored early in the afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt out of the SW to W can be expected late this afternoon and into the evening, though sustained speeds will generally remain aob 10-12 kt. Overnight, the typical diurnal E switch is still expected to occur (between 08-10Z), but with a more southerly component than usual. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: The main aviation concern through the TAF period will be strong W winds at KIPL and SSW to SW winds at KBLH. Gusts will develop this afternoon at both terminals, with values peaking between 35-40 kt during the evening at KIPL and upwards of 25-30 kt at KBLH. Coinciding with the stronger winds, slight reductions in visibility from lofted dust will be possible, particularly at KIPL this evening. Winds are expected to become relatively light at KBLH overnight, whereas gusts may continue through the remainder of the period at KIPL. SW to W winds increase again tomorrow morning just after the end of the current TAF period. SCT to at times BKN mid and high level clouds move in late this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weather system moving just to the north this weekend will bring breezy to windy conditions focused more during the afternoon and evening hours along with cooler conditions starting Sunday. Wind gusts above 30 mph are likely today across much of the western districts and then areawide on Sunday. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over much of the area this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas. For next week, weak high pressure will remain over the region allowing for temperatures returning to slightly above normal, while seasonably dry conditions persist. Lighter winds are expected by Monday, but some afternoon breeziness can be expected during the first part of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman