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000
FXUS65 KPUB 132055
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
255 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures and high fire danger
  expected over portions of the plains and San Luis Valley
  tomorrow.

- Critical fire weather conditions will be widespread over all
  of the plains and within the San Luis Valley on Monday.

- Snow will begin over the ContDvd on Monday, and then spread
  eastward over the higher terrain through the evening and into
  the plains as mostly rain on Tuesday.

- Fire weather conditions will be possible over the southern
  I-25 corridor on Tuesday and most of the southeast plains on
  Wednesday, and then for the San Luis Valley on Thursday and
  Friday.

- Chances of precip will continue to be possible through the end
  of next week, mainly over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates that the area is in a
southwesterly flow well in advance of a closed low off the
California coast. Some weak mid-level vort energy is exiting
eastward of Colorado with a broad swath of dry mid-level air
encroaching Colorado from southern California and the Desert
Southwest. The latest relative humidity time-height cross section
indicates a deep layer of dry air aloft across southeastern
Colorado. At the surface, a 1019mb high is centered over the Arizona-
New Mexico border. Satellite imagery indicates mostly sunny skies
across the area with only a few passing high clouds.

Tonight, the dry southwesterly mid-level flow will continue as the
deep layer of dry air dominates the region. Meanwhile, the surface
high will remain centered over the AZ-NM border and extend northward
into Colorado. Thus, there is model agreement that support clear
skies overnight with winds decreasing to around 5 mph or near calm
across much of the area. Lows tonight are closest to the National
Blend of Models (NBM), ranging from the low to mid 40s from the I-25
corridor eastward to plains of SE Colorado to the lower to mid 20s
in the San Luis Valley and higher terrain.

On Sunday, the closed low will move onshore over southern California
with the area remaining in a dry, southwesterly mid-level flow. With
a deep layer of dry air across the region, another sunny and dry day
can be expected for southeastern Colorado. Relative humidity values
will drop into the single digits in the afternoon for the I-25
corridor and eastward and into the lower teens for the San Luis
Valley. This very dry air paired with winds around 15 mph with gusts
to 20-25 mph for the San Luis Valley and downsloping areas of the
Rampart Range and Wet Mountains has led to an upgrade of the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for The San Luis Valley,
northern El Paso County, and Pueblo County. Southern El Paso County
is marginally below Red Flag Warning (RFW) criteria for winds so
will no fire weather products for this area at this time, but a RFW
might be needed in a future package.

Sunday will be even warmer for high temps with the forecast closest
to the NBM. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s in the SE
Plains to the lower 80s for the I-25 corridor to the lower 70s for
the San Luis Valley to the 40s and 50s for higher terrain.
/04-Woodrum/

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Sunday night through Tuesday...

Models have been trending with the propagation of the major
shortwave trough upstream to move through quicker on Monday through
Tuesday over the area. This will allow for the winds to increase
ahead of a bora front that looks to push through the area by later
in the evening on Monday. The combination of the strong and gusty
winds, along with very dry air (single digit RH values) already in
place that will further dry out as downsloping winds adiabatically
warm, will result in widespread critical fire weather conditions
that will begin over the plains by as early as late morning and
continue through into the evening hours. There will also be critical
fire weather conditions over the San Luis Valley, which will be
starting by a little later in the afternoon hours and should wind
down by by early evening, given that RH values will be more marginal
and closer to the threshold. There will also be  snow beginning over
the ContDvd that will expand eastward across the rest of the higher
terrain throughout the evening and into the morning on Tuesday.
Highs on Monday with the low pressure system advancing closer will
be notably cooler over the plains, although still slightly above the
seasonal temperature for this time of year.

As the associated low pressure continues to move out over the plains
and progress eastward, there will be some wrap around moisture that
could provide some precip (mainly in the form of rain but perhaps a
rain/snow mix for elevations above 6000 ft) over the plains,
although it looks to be very brief and isolated as the low will be
moving quickly away from the region, and the best chances will be
over the Palmer Divide. On the backside of the low, winds will also
continue to be strong and gusty out of the northwest, although there
will be cooler temperatures and slightly higher RH values for the
plains, and therefore any fire weather concerns during the afternoon
will be more confined to only the southern I-25 corridor, where
there will be better downsloping winds in place. Any lingering
showers will come to an end by later in the day as high pressure
temporarily builds back in before the next secondary wave upstream
approaches. Highest snowfall totals are expected for the central
mountains, mainly the northern Sawatch Range, where there might
eventually need to be winter highlights in place.

Wednesday through Friday...

There is still some uncertainty with the models in terms of the
progression of a secondary and tertiary wave embedded within the
longwave trough. Chances of precip look to remain over the region
throughout this period in the forecast, and ensembles express that a
majority of any precip will stay more confined over the northern
half of Colorado. For us here in southeast Colorado, the main
concern will continue to be fire weather conditions continuing on
through Friday. For the plains, there will be more widespread
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday afternoon through
early evening over the southeast plains. For the San Luis Valley,
fire weather looks to be more widespread on Thursday during the
afternoon, but then more spotty on Friday. The plains will continue
to remain mostly dry, although a cold front moving through by later
on Wednesday will help to suppress fire weather concerns over this
area for Thursday and Friday, as winds will be northeasterly, and
therefore cooler with higher RH values. The overall temperature
trend shows a slight cooldown each day towards the end of next week,
with highs expected to be below the seasonal average for the plains
both Thursday and Friday.   -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals throughout the TAF
period as high pressure south of the area is accompanied by a deep
layer of dry air. This will allow for clear skies for the TAF sites.
Westerly to southwesterly winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts
will decrease into the evening. Winds will continue to decrease
overnight to light and variable around 5kts across the
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-
228>237.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ224-226-
228.
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...WOODRUM