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Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000
UXUS97 KPUB 101216
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0616 MDT Wednesday, April 10, 2024
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Wednesday, April 10, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 40.0 F/4.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 876 ft/min (4.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 19759 ft MSL (12138 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 56.0 F/13.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0830 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 17599 ft MSL (9979 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 04/11..... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:28:44 / 19:32:00 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 3 min 16 sec (783 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:22 MDT... 59.36 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 04/10/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 7634 ft MSL (13 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 8792 ft MSL (1171 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13568 ft MSL (5947 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16685 ft MSL (9064 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.8
K index......................... +7.0
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.8 -68.4 275 25 13 1.3 0.7 M M M M M
45000 -53.8 -64.8 270 26 13 1.5 0.8 M M M M M
40000 -54.6 -66.3 295 40 21 -0.6 -0.4 M M M M M
38000 -54.6 -66.3 305 45 23 1.0 0.6 M M M M M
36000 -54.0 -65.2 315 47 24 1.0 0.5 M M M M M
34000 -53.4 -64.1 325 51 26 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
32000 -50.3 -58.5 325 48 25 5.1 2.8 M M M M M
30000 -47.2 -53.0 325 45 23 6.0 3.3 22.0 71.5 6.6 M M
29000 -45.3 -49.5 330 41 21 6.3 3.4 20.4 68.8 5.5 M M
28000 -43.4 -46.1 330 38 20 6.3 3.4 19.1 66.3 4.5 M M
27000 -41.6 -42.9 330 35 18 6.1 3.3 17.9 64.2 3.6 M M
26000 -39.2 -38.6 330 33 17 8.8 4.8 17.2 62.9 3.1 M M
25000 -35.8 -32.4 330 32 17 8.8 4.9 16.7 62.1 2.8 M M
24000 -33.2 -27.8 330 32 16 8.8 4.8 16.5 61.7 2.6 M M
23000 -30.6 -23.1 325 28 15 8.3 4.6 15.9 60.7 2.2 M M
22000 -28.1 -18.6 320 25 13 8.3 4.6 15.4 59.8 1.8 M M
21000 -25.7 -14.3 310 21 11 6.9 3.8 15.0 59.0 1.4 M M
20000 -23.9 -11.0 310 21 11 6.0 3.3 13.6 56.5 0.2 M M
19500 -23.0 -9.4 310 20 11 6.0 3.3 12.9 55.3 -0.4 1050 5.3
19000 -22.1 -7.8 310 20 10 5.9 3.3 12.3 54.2 -0.9 1009 5.1
18500 -21.2 -6.2 310 20 10 5.2 2.8 11.7 53.1 -1.4 967 4.9
18000 -20.6 -5.1 310 20 10 4.2 2.3 10.8 51.4 -2.3 934 4.7
17500 -20.0 -4.0 310 20 10 4.2 2.3 9.8 49.7 -3.2 902 4.6
17000 -19.4 -2.9 315 20 10 4.8 2.6 9.0 48.1 -4.1 867 4.4
16500 -18.7 -1.7 315 20 10 4.7 2.6 8.1 46.6 -4.9 832 4.2
16000 -17.9 -0.2 320 20 10 6.9 3.8 7.4 45.4 -5.6 794 4.0
15500 -16.8 1.8 325 21 11 7.4 4.0 7.0 44.7 -6.0 746 3.8
15000 -15.7 3.7 330 21 11 7.8 4.3 6.7 44.0 -6.4 699 3.5
14500 -14.5 5.9 335 23 12 8.0 4.4 6.4 43.5 -6.7 648 3.3
14000 -13.3 8.1 335 24 12 8.2 4.5 6.1 43.0 -7.0 598 3.0
13500 -12.1 10.2 335 24 13 8.4 4.6 5.9 42.6 -7.3 546 2.8
13000 -10.9 12.4 340 25 13 8.9 4.9 5.6 42.2 -7.6 494 2.5
12500 -9.5 14.9 340 25 13 8.2 4.5 5.6 42.1 -7.7 438 2.2
12000 -8.4 16.9 340 25 13 7.4 4.1 5.2 41.3 -8.1 392 2.0
11750 -7.9 17.8 340 25 13 7.6 4.2 5.0 41.0 -8.3 368 1.9
11500 -7.3 18.9 340 25 13 7.9 4.3 4.8 40.7 -8.5 343 1.7
11250 -6.7 19.9 340 25 13 8.4 4.6 4.7 40.5 -8.7 318 1.6
11000 -6.1 21.0 340 26 13 8.6 4.7 4.6 40.3 -8.8 291 1.5
10750 -5.4 22.3 340 26 13 8.7 4.8 4.5 40.2 -8.9 264 1.3
10500 -4.8 23.4 340 27 14 8.0 4.4 4.4 40.0 -9.0 238 1.2
10250 -4.1 24.6 340 27 14 10.4 5.7 4.4 39.8 -9.1 211 1.1
10000 -3.3 26.1 335 27 14 10.7 5.9 4.5 40.1 -9.0 178 0.9
9750 -2.6 27.3 335 27 14 8.3 4.6 4.4 40.0 -9.1 151 0.8
9500 -2.0 28.4 335 26 13 8.4 4.6 4.3 39.8 -9.3 124 0.6
9250 -1.4 29.5 335 25 13 9.2 5.0 4.2 39.6 -9.4 98 0.5
9000 -0.7 30.7 330 23 12 8.3 4.5 4.2 39.6 -9.5 70 0.4
8750 -0.1 31.8 330 21 11 6.7 3.7 4.0 39.2 -9.7 46 0.2
8500 0.4 32.7 335 19 10 7.2 3.9 3.8 38.8 -9.9 23 0.1
8250 0.9 33.6 335 17 9 6.9 3.8 3.6 38.5 -10.1 M M
8000 1.3 34.3 335 15 8 -1.5 -0.8 3.2 37.7 -10.6 M M
7750 0.6 33.1 330 10 5 -14.7 -8.1 1.8 35.2 -12.0 M M
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
04/10/2024 at 0900 MDT | 04/10/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +15.0 LI... +1.6 | CAPE... +47.6 LI... +0.5
CINH... -4.4 K Index... +6.8 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +9.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.2 -69.2 275 20 10 2.0 1.1 | -56.1 -69.0 265 20 10 1.4 0.8
45000 -53.1 -63.6 280 23 12 2.3 1.3 | -53.9 -65.0 290 20 10 1.7 0.9
40000 -54.8 -66.6 300 45 23 -1.3 -0.7 | -54.8 -66.6 310 45 23 -0.7 -0.4
38000 -54.9 -66.8 310 51 26 1.3 0.7 | -54.8 -66.6 315 52 27 1.1 0.6
36000 -54.1 -65.4 315 53 27 1.3 0.7 | -54.1 -65.4 320 52 27 1.1 0.6
34000 -53.3 -63.9 325 56 29 3.8 2.1 | -53.3 -63.9 325 53 27 4.0 2.2
32000 -50.0 -58.0 325 57 30 5.5 3.0 | -50.2 -58.4 330 58 30 5.3 2.9
30000 -46.7 -52.1 325 58 30 5.7 3.1 | -46.9 -52.4 335 63 33 6.3 3.4
29000 -45.0 -49.0 325 54 28 5.8 3.2 | -45.0 -49.0 335 62 32 6.4 3.5
28000 -43.2 -45.8 325 50 26 5.8 3.2 | -43.1 -45.6 335 60 31 6.4 3.5
27000 -41.5 -42.7 325 47 24 5.7 3.1 | -41.1 -42.0 335 59 30 6.3 3.5
26000 -39.6 -39.3 325 43 22 6.8 3.8 | -38.9 -38.0 340 57 29 7.8 4.3
25000 -37.0 -34.6 320 38 19 6.9 3.8 | -36.0 -32.8 340 54 28 7.8 4.3
24000 -35.0 -31.0 320 34 17 7.0 3.9 | -33.6 -28.5 340 52 27 7.8 4.3
23000 -32.4 -26.3 320 34 17 8.9 4.9 | -31.3 -24.3 335 48 24 7.7 4.2
22000 -29.7 -21.5 320 35 18 8.9 4.9 | -29.0 -20.2 335 43 22 7.7 4.2
21000 -27.1 -16.8 325 35 18 7.2 3.9 | -26.8 -16.2 335 39 20 6.3 3.4
20000 -25.3 -13.5 325 33 17 6.2 3.4 | -25.1 -13.2 335 35 18 5.7 3.1
19500 -24.3 -11.7 325 33 17 6.2 3.4 | -24.2 -11.6 335 34 17 5.7 3.1
19000 -23.4 -10.1 325 32 16 6.1 3.4 | -23.4 -10.1 335 32 16 5.7 3.1
18500 -22.5 -8.5 325 31 16 5.4 3.0 | -22.5 -8.5 330 30 15 6.0 3.3
18000 -21.8 -7.2 325 28 14 4.8 2.6 | -21.6 -6.9 335 29 15 6.1 3.4
17500 -21.1 -6.0 325 25 13 4.8 2.6 | -20.7 -5.3 335 28 14 6.3 3.4
17000 -20.2 -4.4 330 23 12 7.1 3.9 | -19.7 -3.5 335 28 14 7.1 3.9
16500 -19.2 -2.6 335 23 12 6.9 3.8 | -18.7 -1.7 335 27 14 7.0 3.8
16000 -18.2 -0.8 335 22 11 7.6 4.2 | -17.6 0.3 335 27 14 7.5 4.1
15500 -17.0 1.4 340 22 11 7.7 4.2 | -16.5 2.3 335 27 14 7.5 4.1
15000 -15.9 3.4 345 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -15.4 4.3 335 26 14 8.0 4.4
14500 -14.7 5.5 350 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -14.1 6.6 335 26 13 8.1 4.5
14000 -13.5 7.7 350 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -12.9 8.8 335 25 13 8.1 4.4
13500 -12.3 9.9 355 22 11 7.8 4.3 | -11.8 10.8 335 23 12 8.1 4.4
13000 -11.2 11.8 355 22 11 8.5 4.6 | -10.6 12.9 335 21 11 9.1 5.0
12500 -9.8 14.4 355 22 11 8.3 4.6 | -9.1 15.6 335 18 9 9.2 5.1
12000 -8.7 16.3 360 22 11 8.2 4.5 | -7.8 18.0 335 15 8 9.2 5.0
11750 -8.0 17.6 360 22 11 9.2 5.1 | -7.1 19.2 335 15 8 9.5 5.2
11500 -7.3 18.9 360 22 12 9.1 5.0 | -6.4 20.5 335 15 8 9.7 5.3
11250 -6.7 19.9 360 22 12 8.9 4.9 | -5.7 21.7 335 15 8 10.4 5.7
11000 -6.0 21.2 360 22 12 8.0 4.4 | -4.9 23.2 340 15 8 9.6 5.3
10750 -5.5 22.1 360 22 11 7.2 4.0 | -4.2 24.4 340 14 7 9.0 4.9
10500 -5.0 23.0 360 22 11 6.8 3.7 | -3.6 25.5 340 14 7 8.1 4.5
10250 -4.5 23.9 360 22 11 8.5 4.6 | -2.9 26.8 340 14 7 11.7 6.4
10000 -3.8 25.2 355 21 11 9.4 5.1 | -1.9 28.6 340 14 7 12.3 6.7
9750 -3.1 26.4 355 20 10 8.5 4.7 | -1.2 29.8 340 14 7 9.2 5.0
9500 -2.5 27.5 350 19 10 8.3 4.5 | -0.4 31.3 340 14 7 9.8 5.4
9250 -1.9 28.6 350 19 10 10.2 5.6 | 0.3 32.5 340 14 7 10.3 5.7
9000 -1.0 30.2 345 18 9 10.8 5.9 | 1.1 34.0 340 14 7 10.4 5.7
8750 -0.3 31.5 345 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 1.9 35.4 340 14 7 9.9 5.4
8500 0.4 32.7 340 16 8 9.3 5.1 | 2.6 36.7 340 13 7 9.6 5.3
8250 1.1 34.0 340 15 8 11.1 6.1 | 3.3 37.9 340 13 7 11.2 6.1
8000 3.4 38.1 335 13 6 18.2 10.0 | 4.4 39.9 340 13 7 19.0 10.4
7750 4.7 40.5 335 11 6 16.1 8.8 | 6.2 43.2 340 12 6 26.8 14.7
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
04/10/2024 at 1500 MDT | 04/10/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +74.5 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +52.4 LI... +0.5
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +14.4 | CINH... -6.8 K Index... +10.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.8 -68.4 270 26 13 0.2 0.1 | -55.6 -68.1 285 27 14 0.2 0.1
45000 -55.4 -67.7 280 27 14 0.3 0.2 | -55.3 -67.5 290 30 15 0.4 0.2
40000 -56.2 -69.2 315 47 24 -0.5 -0.3 | -57.9 -72.2 320 50 26 -1.7 -0.9
38000 -56.2 -69.2 320 53 27 1.0 0.5 | -57.9 -72.2 325 57 29 2.1 1.1
36000 -55.6 -68.1 320 53 27 0.9 0.5 | -56.7 -70.1 330 60 31 2.1 1.1
34000 -54.8 -66.6 325 54 28 5.0 2.8 | -55.2 -67.4 330 62 32 6.1 3.3
32000 -51.3 -60.3 330 59 30 5.9 3.3 | -51.4 -60.5 330 61 31 6.3 3.4
30000 -47.6 -53.7 335 64 33 7.9 4.4 | -47.5 -53.5 330 59 31 8.2 4.5
29000 -45.2 -49.4 335 65 34 7.9 4.3 | -45.1 -49.2 330 59 30 8.0 4.4
28000 -42.9 -45.2 335 66 34 7.9 4.3 | -42.7 -44.9 330 58 30 8.0 4.4
27000 -40.5 -40.9 335 68 35 7.9 4.3 | -40.3 -40.5 330 57 29 8.0 4.4
26000 -38.1 -36.6 335 64 33 7.9 4.3 | -37.8 -36.0 330 55 28 8.1 4.5
25000 -35.8 -32.4 330 59 30 7.9 4.3 | -35.4 -31.7 330 52 27 8.1 4.5
24000 -32.8 -27.0 330 52 27 7.8 4.3 | -32.3 -26.1 330 49 25 8.4 4.6
23000 -30.5 -22.9 330 50 26 7.6 4.2 | -29.7 -21.5 330 48 25 8.8 4.8
22000 -28.2 -18.8 330 48 25 7.6 4.2 | -27.1 -16.8 330 46 24 8.8 4.8
21000 -26.1 -15.0 330 45 23 5.6 3.1 | -24.6 -12.3 330 44 23 5.6 3.1
20000 -24.5 -12.1 325 38 19 5.4 2.9 | -23.0 -9.4 330 40 20 5.5 3.0
19500 -23.7 -10.7 320 34 17 5.4 3.0 | -22.1 -7.8 325 38 19 5.6 3.0
19000 -22.9 -9.2 315 30 16 5.4 3.0 | -21.3 -6.3 325 36 18 5.7 3.1
18500 -22.0 -7.6 310 28 14 6.6 3.6 | -20.6 -5.1 325 33 17 3.7 2.0
18000 -21.0 -5.8 315 30 15 6.9 3.8 | -20.1 -4.2 320 31 16 3.5 1.9
17500 -20.0 -4.0 315 31 16 7.4 4.1 | -19.6 -3.3 320 28 14 4.9 2.7
17000 -18.7 -1.7 315 30 15 9.0 4.9 | -18.5 -1.3 315 27 14 8.3 4.6
16500 -17.4 0.7 310 28 14 9.0 4.9 | -17.3 0.9 315 26 14 8.1 4.5
16000 -16.1 3.0 305 27 14 9.2 5.0 | -16.0 3.2 310 25 13 9.9 5.4
15500 -14.8 5.4 305 26 13 9.2 5.1 | -14.6 5.7 310 24 12 9.8 5.4
15000 -13.5 7.7 305 25 13 8.3 4.6 | -13.2 8.2 310 23 12 9.0 4.9
14500 -12.3 9.9 310 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -11.9 10.6 310 22 11 8.9 4.9
14000 -11.1 12.0 310 21 11 7.9 4.4 | -10.6 12.9 310 21 11 7.9 4.3
13500 -9.9 14.2 320 18 9 7.9 4.3 | -9.5 14.9 315 21 11 7.5 4.1
13000 -8.7 16.3 330 16 8 9.5 5.2 | -8.4 16.9 315 20 10 8.3 4.6
12500 -7.2 19.0 335 14 7 9.4 5.2 | -7.2 19.0 325 19 10 7.0 3.8
12000 -5.8 21.6 340 14 7 9.4 5.1 | -6.2 20.8 335 19 10 7.2 4.0
11750 -5.1 22.8 340 14 7 9.4 5.2 | -5.6 21.9 335 18 9 7.9 4.3
11500 -4.4 24.1 340 14 7 9.6 5.3 | -5.1 22.8 340 18 9 8.3 4.5
11250 -3.6 25.5 340 14 7 10.5 5.7 | -4.4 24.1 345 18 9 9.6 5.3
11000 -2.9 26.8 340 14 7 9.3 5.1 | -3.7 25.3 350 17 9 9.0 5.0
10750 -2.2 28.0 340 14 7 8.4 4.6 | -3.1 26.4 355 17 9 8.6 4.7
10500 -1.6 29.1 340 14 7 7.9 4.3 | -2.4 27.7 355 17 9 8.0 4.4
10250 -0.9 30.4 340 14 7 12.2 6.7 | -1.8 28.8 355 17 9 11.3 6.2
10000 0.1 32.2 345 14 7 12.4 6.8 | -0.8 30.6 355 17 9 11.7 6.4
9750 0.9 33.6 345 14 7 8.6 4.7 | -0.1 31.8 360 17 9 8.9 4.9
9500 1.6 34.9 345 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 0.6 33.1 360 17 9 9.2 5.1
9250 2.3 36.1 345 14 7 10.3 5.6 | 1.3 34.3 360 17 9 10.8 5.9
9000 3.1 37.6 345 14 7 11.0 6.0 | 2.2 36.0 360 17 9 11.0 6.0
8750 3.9 39.0 345 14 7 10.2 5.6 | 2.9 37.2 360 17 9 9.4 5.2
8500 4.6 40.3 345 14 7 10.3 5.6 | 3.6 38.5 360 17 9 9.7 5.3
8250 5.4 41.7 345 14 7 10.9 6.0 | 4.4 39.9 360 17 9 10.1 5.5
8000 6.4 43.5 345 13 7 18.0 9.9 | 5.2 41.4 360 17 8 13.6 7.5
7750 8.1 46.6 345 13 6 27.4 15.0 | 6.4 43.5 360 15 8 17.9 9.8
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
- National Weather Service
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- 8800 Passenheim Road
- Gaylord, MI 49735-9454
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- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC