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000
FXUS65 KREV 120953
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A transition to a more active pattern is expected this weekend as
a low pressure system slowly tracks across the Sierra and western
Nevada. Expect periods of strong and gusty winds along with rain
and mountain snow showers. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will also be possible over the weekend. Our seasonably mild
weather will cool over the next few days with drier and seasonable
temperatures looking more likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An incoming spring low pressure system will slowly meander across
the Sierra and Great Basin this weekend leading to periods of gusty
winds, mountain snow and valley rain showers along with scattered
thunderstorm chances.

Wind:

* South-southwest winds will be on the increase this morning as
  the low nudges inland with wind gusts of 60-80 mph materializing
  along the Sierra crest. For the lower valleys today expect
  widespread S-SW wind gusts of 30-40 mph before stronger S-SE
  winds develop Saturday afternoon along Mineral, Pershing, and
  portions of S.Mono County along US-6.

* Wind gusts upwards of 40-60 mph are possible in these areas
  which could result in crosswind hazards for high profile
  vehicles, especially along US-95 near Walker Lake. Blowing dust
  could be a concern downwind of dry lake beds/desert sink areas
  along portions of US-50 and I-80. Otherwise expect impacts to
  outdoor recreation including rough lake waters.

Precipitation and Thunderstorm Chances:

* Friday: Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Friday
  afternoon as forcing from diffluence aloft from the approaching
  low combines with modest instability (200-300+ J/kg). 15-30%
  precipitation chances will be in place along the eastern Sierra
  into western Nevada mainly north of US-50. Areas roughly
  northward of Susanville-Gerlach will see 40-60% chances along
  with a 25% chance of thunderstorms. A few of these cells could
  be better organized with stronger 0-6km wind shear in place
  allowing storms to develop strong outflows and hail.

* Saturday: Precipitation chances increase on Saturday as the core
  of the low moves inland. This will yield 80-90% chance for
  showers across the Sierra with 40-60% chances across far western
  Nevada. Thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday afternoon
  with the best potential north of US-50 across W.Nevada extending
  into Lassen and Plumas counties. Snow levels will begin to
  descend from near 8500` on Friday to 6000-7000` by Saturday
  afternoon which could lead to some travel slow downs across
  Sierra passes with 1-3 inches possible.

* Sunday: Snow levels further drop between 4000-5000` with snow
  showers possible as a banded area of precipitation develops on the
  backside of the low. An additional 1-3" will be possible along the
  Sierra from the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen and far northern
  Washoe counties. Localized areas up to 5" are possible in isolated
  stronger cells.

Most precipitation will taper off late Sunday night as the low
departs to the east. Conditions overall have trended a bit drier
next week as a shortwave trough brushes by to the northeast.
However, this should aid keeping temperatures near season averages
for much of next week. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

* Strong and gusty winds are expected on Friday leading to an
  increased potential for mountain wave turbulence and LLWS as winds
  at FL100 increasing to 40-50 kts. Surface winds will increase and
  peak during the afternoon/evening hours both days with widespread
  gusts 25-35 kts, locally stronger to 40 kts.

* On Saturday winds will vary between SE-SW through midday Saturday,
  but with a notable shift to the west along the Hwy 395/I-580
  corridor by mid afternoon Saturday and across much of western NV
  by Saturday evening as a front surges through. Areas from KHTH-
  KNFL-KLOL will see stronger S-SE winds with gusts in excess of
  50kt possible. This could yield areas of blowing dust across
  western NV reducing visibility below 1SM at times.

* Isolated-scattered showers will develop from the Sierra and Reno-
  Carson City area northward Friday afternoon, then spread to all
  areas Saturday. There will be a 10-30% chance of thunder each day,
  focused along the Sierra, far western NV and areas north of I-80.

* Snow levels will remain above most terminals although they could
  dip briefly to Sierra terminal elevations in heavier showers.
  Expect periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR conditions in rain
  showers for Sierra sites and brief mountain top obscuration and
  MVFR conditions at lower elevations, especially along and behind
  the front Saturday. Fuentes/Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight PDT
     tonight NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ001-004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight PDT
     tonight CAZ072.

&&

$$