037
FXUS61 KRLX 060546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front stalls across the area tonight. An upper level
way bring showers and storms Monday. Active weather through the
work week, with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 745 PM Sunday...

Cleaned up near-term POPs a bit for current conditions, but
overall stuck with the idea of POPs winding down overall, and
the current activity shifting east into the evening. Did
introduce some patchy fog for the valleys, but it will be most
likely in any areas that got rain this afternoon/evening.


As of 120 PM Sunday...

A weak cold front will move into the region this afternoon and
evening, before stalling over the area later tonight. This will
provide some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Drier air aloft is evident on the soundings, with precipitable
water values considerably less than Saturday. This lessens the
chance of flash flooding, although it can not completely be
ruled out due to some areas receiving significant rainfall in
the last two days. The drier air aloft does provide a bit of a
downburst wind threat for any stronger storms, mainly over
central Ohio and northern West Virginia.

An upper level short wave will then provide showers and
thunderstorms for Monday. Precipitable water values recover into
the 1.5 to 1.75 range over eastern Kentucky, western West
Virginia, and southeast Ohio. Clouds however should limit
daytime heating, leading to limited CAPE values. With a frontal
boundary nearly stationary across the area however, am
concerned that it could serve as a focusing mechanism and lead
to some training storms and localized flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1217 PM Sunday...

Severe weather will be possible across parts of the area Tuesday.
SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and
western West Virginia outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather.
Models suggest that all severe hazards will be possible, but the
greatest threat may be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values may exceed
1,000 J/kg, MUCAPE values look to exceed 2,000 J/kg, 0-6 km mean
wind looks to be around 25 kts, and the effective bulk wind
difference should be 25-30 kts. All of these parameters point toward
a possible damaging wind threat with thunderstorms on Tuesday. PWATs
are expected to be from 1.50-1.75", so flooding downpours will also
be possible in thunderstorms.

Another severe weather threat will exist Wednesday. The main severe
risks on Wednesday appear to be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Forecast soundings show a large layer of mid-level dry air Wednesday
afternoon, which would be conducive to hail development and damaging
wind potential. SPC currently has portions of northeast Kentucky,
southeast Ohio and extreme western West Virginia outlooked in a 15%
risk for severe weather Wednesday (day 4).

The intensity of any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
will depend on how well the atmosphere destabilizes after prior
morning convection. In addition, the ground is becoming more
saturated due to recent convective activity over the past couple of
days. Any thunderstorms that move over saturated ground may lead to
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1218 PM Sunday...

A cold front will pass through the region Friday morning, and the
severe weather threat should diminish heading into next weekend as
cooler, more stable air funnels in behind the front. However,
showers will remain possible through the weekend with lingering
energy aloft. With the ground becoming increasingly saturated due to
recent convective activity, we may still have to keep an eye on the
threat of flooding heading into the end of the week. Confidence is
low at this time, so stay tuned for more details over the coming
days as the picture becomes clearer. Temperatures will be much
cooler Friday through next weekend, with highs only expected to be
in the 50s (mountains) and 60s to lower 70s (lowlands).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Monday...

An assortment of patchy fog, low stratus, and a passing mid-
level cloud deck will impose a challenging aviation forecast
this morning. Some clearing is taking shape down in the southern
coalfields, where vsbys have tumbled down to IFR thresholds,
while northern half of the territory still resides under anvil
blow off from convection upstream that has prevented
development of fog. However, further clearing is in the realm of
possibility over the next few hours, that could give way to fog
before sunrise. Tempo groups were included to attempt bouncing
flight rules during the overnight period.

After daybreak, a warm front lifts up into the Tennessee
Valley, with showers attached to the boundary. This will drape
itself through our forecast area for the majority of the day,
allowing for showers and afternoon thunderstorms to sprout. The
front may also promote MVFR ceilings during its northern
progression through the Central Appalachians. Activity gradually
wanes this evening, however low ceilings will prevail overnight
tonight as the front remains parked nearby.

Light and variable winds overnight will aid in fog production
amid peaks of clear skies. Low level flow will shift out of the
southwest through the day as the warm front migrates over the
area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will
likely vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/06/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK