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000
FXUS64 KSHV 130523
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Warmed lows for several locales with few if any category changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

We are enjoying a beautiful spring evening with calm wind most
everywhere except our Texas sites, where a light south wind is
likely to persist. The core of high pressure continues to slide
eastward, from the current location of SE LA at 1024mb last hour
in the Big Easy metro area, down the Gulf coast toward Mobile by
daybreak. So even several of our calm sites may see that light
return flow begin during the overnight. Current dew points lock in
the possibilities with that scenario and we have bumped many
locales up a couple or few degrees with some category changes
slightly warmer. In addition, the cirrus over east TX will
overspread the rest of our area. So just a few upper 40s left
intact over south AR and mostly a range of low to mid 50s, which
is actually quite average for mid April.
No other changes needed at this time.

/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sunday will see the features of the flattened upper level flow
becoming redefined, with a secondary ridge amplifying over the Front
Range ahead of a deepening trough over the Pacific Coast. This ridge
will drift eastward over the Plains late Sunday and overnight into
Monday, quickly trekking across the Four State Region and passing on
to our east by Monday afternoon.

This progressive upper level pattern amounts to another delay in the
arrival of the expected showers and storms early next week.
Following on the heels of the aforementioned ridge, the deep trough
and its closed low will push across the Intermountain West Monday,
crossing the Plains in time to swing a surface cold front and
attendant storm system into the ArkLaTex late Monday or possibly
early Tuesday. As of this writing, storms do not look to enter our
northwesternmost zones until after 00Z Tuesday at the earliest,
spreading south and east through the night and into Tuesday morning,
overspreading the majority of the reason by Tuesday afternoon before
departing quickly to the north and east.

Much of the ArkLaTex along and north of the I-20 corridor remains in
a 15% outlook for severe thunderstorms with the Monday night into
Tuesday system. It remains too early at this time to confidently
speculate on potential modes of severe weather. For now, all modes
should be considered possible, along with the potential for further
flash flooding in areas which remain saturated with still-swollen
creeks and rivers. The ArkLaTex is not currently outlooked in
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, but given the recent days of flooding
rains, it will not take much additional rainfall to cause potential
hazards. The next update to the D4-8 severe weather outlook will be
issued overnight tonight.

Behind Tuesday`s trough, pseudo-zonal flow will dominate the upper
level pattern for the ArkLaTex Wednesday, on which some weaker
disturbances will ride in, bringing a return of showers and storms
late in the week, making for an unsettled end of this extended
forecast period, followed by a cold front which may be deep enough
to break the sustained trend of 80 degree afternoons which will
continue throughout next week, with morning lows generally in the
60s throughout.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South winds to increase across the region today as surface high
pressure shifts east of the region. Expect wind speed values to
increase to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts after 13/15Z. Winds
to diminish to 5 to 10 knots after 14/00Z. Otherwise, VFR cirrus
ceilings possible across most of the TAF sites later today. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  61  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  83  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  82  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  84  60  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  83  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  61  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  83  60  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05