751
FXUS64 KSHV 071955
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
255 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through
the rest of the week with above average temperatures. This is due
to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow
combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew
points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach
the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result. Precipitation will remain
possible through most of the rest of the week due to a lingering
frontal boundary that serves to focus thunderstorm activity and
key atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms (large
hail/damaging winds possible) into a corridor across northeast
Texas into southern Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal details of
Wednesday`s convection and its magnitude across the area,
according to the latest high-resolution guidance, while Thursday
afternoon convection will occur further south of the I-20
corridor. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Frontal passage by the end of the week will provide a break in
active weather and above average temperatures through the weekend
before precipitation chances return next week. This is due to
quasi-zonal flow aloft with a weak cutoff low drifting east in
that flow across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
low will continue to slowly drift over drier air as surface
ridging traverses the Intermountain West, finally introducing
northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (maximums in the lower
80s/minimums in the mid-60s) by Friday. Surface ridging will
quickly begin to shift east across the Mississippi River by
Sunday, reintroducing southerly surface winds and precipitation
chances by early next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Cigs have lifted/become low VFR across the region early this
afternoon to start the 18Z TAF period, with some scattering of
these cigs expected by mid and late afternoon across E TX/N LA/SW
AR, which should linger through much of the evening. However, low
MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop by mid to late evening over
Deep E TX and Cntrl LA, spreading N to encompass the remainder of
the region between 06-09Z. In fact, IFR cigs are possible
overnight across the region, with a return of MVFR cigs expected
by mid-morning, and VFR not returning until the end of the TAF
period. Isolated to scattered convection may develop over
portions of extreme NE TX into SW AR late this evening through a
portion of the overnight hours, but low confidence precludes
mention in the TXK/ELD TAF`s attm. SSW winds 8-12kts this
afternoon, with occasional gusts to 20kts, will become S and
diminish to 6-10kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  91  72  89 /  10  20  40  40
MLU  73  91  72  89 /   0  10  30  40
DEQ  67  86  61  84 /  10  40  50  30
TXK  73  91  67  86 /  10  30  60  30
ELD  71  89  66  86 /  10  20  60  30
TYR  74  89  70  86 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  89  70  87 /  10  30  30  40
LFK  73  90  73  91 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15