Text Products for ESF Issued by SHV

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions: 1 2 3 4
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FGUS74 KSHV 211725
ESFSHV
221125-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the
Mud Creek will rise above 8.8 feet during the next 90 days.


        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
        valid for March 20, 2024 through June 18, 2024


     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Mud Creek
 Jacksonville 7E    9  6.3  6.8  7.9  8.3  8.8  9.2  9.8 10.1 11.7
East Fork Angelina River
 Cushing 4N        15 11.5 12.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.6 16.0 17.3
Angelina River
 Alto 8E           29 21.6 21.8 25.1 26.6 27.6 28.2 29.0 29.2 29.9
Attoyac Bayou
 Chireno 3E        14 11.5 11.5 12.7 14.9 18.0 18.9 19.0 19.4 20.3
Ayish Bayou
 San Augustine 10S 12 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8
Neches River
 Neches 4NE        12 10.1 11.7 13.1 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.5
 Alto 8SW          16 11.6 13.3 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.0 20.3
 Diboll 4S         12  9.6 10.8 11.5 12.8 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.9 16.2
 Rockland          26  7.9 10.7 11.8 13.9 15.7 19.0 21.0 25.5 29.4


Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 345.2 345.3 345.5 345.8 345.8 346.2 346.5 347.2 347.7

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address
URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

09
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
